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To: rkral who wrote (67804)5/8/2005 6:18:08 PM
From: Lazarus_Long  Respond to of 77400
 
finance.yahoo.com
If you look at this, if you exclude 1995-2000 (those years Lizzie considers "normal"), the SP500 stock trend from 2003 (the apparent bottom of the buuble burst) until now appears to be simply a continuarion on the the trend before 1995 (the start of the bubble).

On 12/31/1969 the SP500 closed at 17.63. (LIZZIE: That date was chosen because it is the earlist Yahoo provides. No other dirty tricky reason.) On 12/31/2005 it was 1213.55. That's 36 years.

The formula for compound interest is

A = P*(1 + r)^N

where r is the annual interest rate, N is the number of years (36 in this case), P is the beginning principal (17.63 in this case), and A is the final amount (1213.55 in this case). Rearranging,

r = (exp( ln(A) - ln(P) )/n ) - 1

and r is about 0.117 or 11.7% in this case.

Note this does not include cash dividends.



To: rkral who wrote (67804)5/8/2005 8:27:32 PM
From: RetiredNow  Respond to of 77400
 
I don't know. Every article that talks about expected future returns talks about the SP500 historical returns and they all say something like 10%. I assume that's total return.



To: rkral who wrote (67804)5/9/2005 6:12:29 AM
From: Dave  Respond to of 77400
 
I believe Jeremy Grantham wrote about the long run return of the stock market.

From recollection:

Capital Appreciation - 5.9%
Dividends - 4.1%