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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Umunhum who wrote (43740)	5/9/2005 1:06:34 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

OT:uhmuhnum: regarding: "I’ve got a soft spot for Chevron right now because the merger with Unocal has stripped away the entire recent run up." I hadn't been considering buying more CVX, but I looked closer after your post, and I decided to add a few more shares. Thanks for posting your ideas. (aside: Kurt Wulff recently reported he likes BR. I bought a few more shares of that as well today.)

To: Umunhum who wrote (43740)	5/11/2005 2:52:33 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

Thanks for the NXY mention. I'll up my small position a bit now.

To: Umunhum who wrote (43740)	5/11/2005 3:12:18 PM
From: cyesp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206093

Wow - great post, I totally agree with you! As dabum and KB have pointed out, money outflows may temporarily depress stock prices. However, the fundemental story will, over the long term, dictate higher prices and the picture you paint. When this correction bottoms (XLE 38.5ish) it should be a great buying opportunity. Cy

To: Umunhum who wrote (43740)	5/11/2005 3:46:32 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206093

I'm interested in the idea behind buying XLE Leaps at this juncture. "50 XLE Jan '07 Strike price $40" At the current price these cost $6.40, or $32,000.00 before commissions. On my risk curve a drop to $38, which seems at least possible, if not probable, would take the position value down to $22,300, or a 30% loss. For the opportunity to buy this position at a 30% discount, and assuming its current downtrend will continue until there, I am faced with the question of why buy now? Or, why not wait for a lower price and a better signal? As another approach, you could hedge your position somewhat by selling the Jan 06 45 calls against the 40s (or the 43s or 44s, etc.). The 06 45s could be sold, now, for 1.80, bringing in 9,000, and lowering your cost on the diagonal spread to $4.60, or $23,000. Any pullback to $38 would put about $4,000 worth of profits into the short position, partially hedging against the $9,000 or so loss. Of course, if XLE did not stop at $38 but rather kept going down (these things can happen), your hedge would continue to partially protect you until you bought it back and remained with your unilateral long Leaps position. At that time presumably the FA analysis would kick in and you could enjoy the benefits of a long LEAPS position until Jan 07. The hedge itself is not without risk, as a sudden rise or fall in XLE could lead to an unprofitable position, but that level of detailed analysis is probably beyond interest at this point. Looking forward to expiry, those XLE Leaps will double your investment at XLE 53, triple it at $60, etc. Kb