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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (43804)	5/9/2005 11:30:02 AM
From: TexasTea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206092

"Production and supply keep ramping Inventory levels week after week, after week, after week, after week..." ---it's called the shoulder season "Slowing Demand expectations (US Consumer with record debt levels & "0" savings rate) in the US based upon the Fed raising rates into an Oil Spike along with the Euro-zone collapsing and China's demand slowing, along with structural cracks appearing in their boom story...don't bode well for the Global Demand ramp up in the 2nd half of 2005 that Oil Bulls are now using as the LAST pillar to prop up present prices." ---slowing economic growth does not equal reversal of growth. Unless growth goes negative, there is very little chance for a reversal in global oil demand. "I predict sub $43 Oil and better than a 50:50 chance of seeing $38ish Crude Oil within 8-12 weeks of the Energy Bill getting passed. And if we do see a US Recession and China does hit a soft patch... back to a band of $25-$35 faster than you can say "Matt Who ?"" ---Is your money where you mouth is? Or are you posting this in attempt to get people to sell out to you? Frankly, I have a hard time believing that you actually believe in the above statement. My prediction: You are trading the exact opposite of what your posts would indicate.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (43804)	5/9/2005 5:11:03 PM
From: 8bits	Respond to of 206092

" Read Replies (1) of 43825 OPEC 30.27m bpd ......the Wall IS coming." Bears watching but the news is out so it's interesting that it hasn't affected the markets. How is production elsewhere..? Mexico's largest field is in decline (per Mexican government..) Russia's increase has leveled off. "Production and supply keep ramping Inventory levels week after week, after week, after week, after week..." Easily explained by oil contracts being in Contango.. "Slowing Demand expectations (US Consumer with record debt levels & "0" savings rate) in the US based upon the Fed raising rates into an Oil Spike along with the Euro-zone collapsing and China's demand slowing, along with structural cracks appearing in their boom story...don't bode well for the Global Demand ramp up in the 2nd half of 2005 that Oil Bulls are now using as the LAST pillar to prop up present prices." Counterbalance that with greater than expected employment figures (and also important greater than expected tax revenues..) The Euro-Zone is hardly collapsing. Slow to no growth yes but not collapsing. China's demand INCREASE slowing (Thankfully) but overall demand is INCREASING. "Crude Oil futures are being supported and propped up untill the Bush Energy Plan gets passed... it is as simple as that - PERIOD." What exactly do the think the Bush energy plan will do in the next year or two..? Chairman of XTO thinks not much. Not enough rigs in Wyoming, Colorado etc. for permits available. "Just watch what happens to Oil Prices when the Energy Plan gets passed.... game over." Well if it gets passed first the Trial lawyers were awakened to the fact that they won't be able to sue for MTBE.. boohoo. " Oil has been kept off the market, the Refiners are doign what is in THEIR best interest - not the markets etc." Where has it been kept.. what about the issue of buying at spot and selling forward into the Contago contracts..? "But, when the Energy Plan get's passed... game over. I predict sub $43 Oil and better than a 50:50 chance of seeing $38ish Crude Oil within 8-12 weeks of the Energy Bill getting passed." We'll come back to that when (if) it happens. "And if we do see a US Recession and China does hit a soft patch... back to a band of $25-$35 faster than you can say "Matt Who ?" Perhaps if we have a SEVERE recession. SA has already said that a number of fields will be basically shut down if oil goes below $32 a barrel. "Go back and Google Search the public information available on the early Bush Adminstration Plans with the Big Oil Companies and Iraq... I guarantee you - you will NEVER use the word "conspiracy theory" towards those cynical of the entire Big Oil/Bush Cheney pOILitical machine again." I am not really a huge fan of Bush but I am not that cynical about him. I do think he believed Iraq was a real threat. "Someone is going to have to finance those Twin Deficits, someone is going to have to bear the burden of a Fiat Currency that has been printed to levels of debasement, flooding the rest of the world with worthless IOU's and "someone" is also going to have to shoulder a bankrupt Medicare, Social Security and Pension System....and perhaps bail out another Derivatives Implosion - this time assuredly being a multiple of LTCM's crisis level." Look at Japan, Eurozone, etc. Sure their current account deficits are better than ours but their future obligations and governmental spending are worse. It's a matter of political will. Also much contention about the real figure for the current account deficit. "We are aleady seeing "2- America's" ...with the Industrial/Manufacturing based Mid-West being gutted into Rust Belt perpituity...and that collapse will affect both Coasts ...in due time. Warren Buffetts prolific words of America becoming a "Sharecropper Society" ...sadly; lie dead ahead as America's Economic Reality." Really a separate but important discussion issue. I am not that negative about the future of the US. I have travelled to countries which are much worse off. We have a VERY long ways to go to get to places where I've been. Many of the problems you listed in the US are a matter of political will.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (43804)	5/9/2005 9:06:55 PM
From: Bob Swift	Respond to of 206092

Slider, Many, if not all, investors are aware of the problems with the US dollar and the havoc a US recession and/or China soft/hard landing will cause. What is lacking is some creative idea to dodge the shit when it hits the fan. Is there a point to keep up the complain without coming up with a solution ?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (43804)	5/13/2005 7:23:57 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 206092

Cramers Mad Money on Goldman Sachs Oil Blow Up..... ...only 4 day old news: ******************************************************************************************************************** re: Message 21306062 ["Oilpatch Bulls ought to do a little due diligence digging into just how deep some of the Investment Banks Energy Derivivatives Traders are into Oil here... everything from owning Storage Facilities, to tankers/shipping etc."] **************************************************************************************************************** But, Cramers guest Doug Kass of Seabreeze went out of his way to ASSuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure us all - that Goldman would NEVER, NEVER, EVER; pump their own internal trading book (re: Arjun-Mary Meeker-Murti's $105 Super Spike Call) as they are an honest shop...........even though their VAR (value at risk) has recently TRIPLED ! Makes you wonder why Goldmans Murti would never come on air for a CNBC interview after making that call now doesn't it ? ....NOT. Nah....Goldman wouldn't do that, neither would the Koz', Uncle Bernie, or the good folks at Enron...just as it was said they would never, ever, even dare, to try to manipulate the California Nat Gas Market during the blackouts....nah, never happened. ....and Frogs don't bump their ass when they hop either. PS: I think someone mentioned a while back that the bulk of the rally in Crude Oil Prices was Currency related. Double Whammy (Inventory Build + US Dollar Rally) Tic' Toc` from Bloomberg: bloomberg.com Oil Falls to 3-Month Low on Increase in U.S. Supplies, Dollar May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York fell to the lowest in almost three months amid an increase in U.S. inventories and as the dollar surged against the euro and yen, making the fuel more expensive for European and Japanese buyers. Nat Gas has ridden the coat-tails of Crude Prices people. Got Nat Gas E&P pureplays ? ....Say Sayonara~