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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (29672)	5/9/2005 2:07:22 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I'm not sure I buy his "wall of oil" thesis....prices may drop, but it'll be more of a demand driven decrease caused by recession rather than tons of new supply coming on board, IMO. Still, the "why" isn't as important as the "how much"....

To: Tommaso who wrote (29672)	5/9/2005 7:47:43 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

re: [Slider has been "astutely" calling for a collapse of energy prices for about a year now."] It only seems like a year to the Permabulls Tommy...especially those that gave up nearly $20 in stocks like BRY to the shortside in less than 8 weeks <vbg>. In actuality it's only been since March of this year: Message 21106813 ...only 60 something days...and so far; no new highs for the Oilstocks... not for the OSX, the XNG, or the XOI since. The minute the Bush Energy Plan is passed...Crude Oil falls. Crude was $40 the first week in December just a couple of months back and since then we've had what ? - 11 significant inventory builds for crude out of the last 12 weeks - simultaneous to refilling our SPR and China's demand has slowed & OPEC production is up ...but, yet Crude Oil is $10-$15 higher ? - not on it's fundamentals, it's not. Just using the market fundamentals of the last 3,4 months - Crude should be lower than it was 5 months ago in December. Fundamentally, maybe in the mid-high $30's here....but, if we were in the mid-high $30's - do you think Bush's Energy Plan would have ANY chance of passing ? - NO. It's called "pOILitic's". Tic' Toc`. And on a note that many on this thread can appreciate: I think more money will be made from here on out; by trading on PEAK FIAT, PEAK DEBT,CREDIT & DERIVATIVES, or PEAK HOUSING than Peak Oil fwiw... PS: Mish - great work on the Housing Bubble...excellent Blog. re: ["It seems increasingly likely to me that the choice is not recession now or recession later, but recession now or depression later."] - Bingo ! Blogsport...now there's a trend we need to figure out how to cash in on.... the Blogosphere is trying to form an AP-esque network as reported on Krudlow & Kompany last week. - interesting evolution of news & research. Kudo's Mish....excellent work.