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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14841)	5/9/2005 2:19:30 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian....their call for an AMAT price target of $25 looks like wishful thinking or an overly optimistic opinion...there will be selling into any rally's which will keep the stock in its current trading range for the foreseeable future. AMAT would need to double its current sales to get to $25, IMO. There is no significant market catalyst for that to happen, at this time or within the next 18-24 months, IMO. Excess production capacity can easily suck up any short to intermediate chip demand increase and chip producers will focus on cost cutting and profitability for the next 18-24 months while they build cash resources for the next technology purchase cycle in late 2007 - 2008. At that point it will be economically advantageous to invest in sub .9uM technology. I see no screaming need for the industry to make a wholesale technology move into sub 90nM geometries at this time. There is plenty of capacity and no real consumer/retail demand for bleeding edge technologies, at this time, except for advanced CPU and memory applications, IMHO.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14841)	5/9/2005 2:24:51 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

I believe flat panel was probablythe worst segement in building up excessive capacity but it seems to work its way out. Looks like NVLS and AMAT are in a dogfighting mode while Varian and Lam are doing very well in the segments they compete with AMAT LCD monitor panel ASP rebounding Latest news Calvin Shao, Taipei; Carrie Yu, DigiTimes.com [Monday 9 May 2005] The ASPs (average selling prices) for 15-, 17- and 19-inch LCD monitor panels rose US$3-5 in the first half of this month, according to WitsView Technology. The ASP for both the 17- and 19-inch segments increased US$5 to US$165 and US$220, respectively, while the ASP of the 15-inch segment edged up US$3 to US$125, the research firm said. The ASP for large-sized panels started to slump in the second quarter of last year but showed signs of stabilizing last quarter. The price reduction was only 3% in the first quarter of this year and the overall ASP may increase this quarter, according to DisplaySearch. According to David Joe, president of HannStar Display, the 17-inch ASP will not surpass US$180 though. LCD TV panel ASPs, on the other hand, have been falling, with the exception of the 20.1-inch segment, which edged up US$2 to US$232 due to tight supply. The ASP for the 32-inch segment has fallen US$10 to US$575, as Chi Mei Optoelectronics (CMO) continues ramping up capacity at its 5.5-generation (5.5G) and AU Optronics (AUO) ramps up capacity at its 6G plant. Both AUO and CMO said they expect the ASP for the segment to fall to US$500 by year-end. DT has a nice chart ASP versus time digitimes.com