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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crossy who wrote (9509)	5/10/2005 10:50:19 PM
From: badog	Respond to of 37387

Crossy, I would have to think that we are pushing the limit of physical storage as we speak. I don't believe that in the past physical storage was nearly as necessary, and therefore not economically feasible to warrant building massive storage capacity beyond what we are presently seeing. As far as supply vs. demand, I assume that futures traders are up close and personal to what is coming in the fall and winter and if anyone has an accurate crystal ball it is most likely those buyers and sellers of the product who's success depends on it (I think I am echoing something you have already said). If they are projecting $54 (opps...it has now slipped below $54), I would probably believe them. I'm sure there is some sort of uncertainty built in such as unforeseen refinery problems, a govt overthrow somewhere, another Venezuela, etc. but most of it is probably supply/demand driven. In the end, as long as oil stays in the $50 dollar area the best producers should do extremely well, the mediocre producers will benefit nicely, and even the worse producers will benefit more than they should. At this point the luster is somewhat off oil producers though because their value with $50 oil has already been established. So I agree with your philosophy that the ones that will benefit mostly going forward are the companies that can increase reserves and deliver more each quarter/year. Improvements in execution, volume, and reserves will be the main events. I am not a believer in $80 oil in the next year or even two years unless a catastrophy occurs. High 40's - $60 seems a reasonable range. Considering the past, that is still a very good range. Badog