Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14905)	5/10/2005 5:05:27 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian - Digitimes readers know more - and it's even free of charge: PSC to raise capex to NT$50 billion Latest news Hans Wu, Taipei; Carrie Yu, DigiTimes.com [Tuesday 10 May 2005] Powerchip Semiconductor Corporation (PSC) has decided to raise its capital expenditure (capex) from NT$40 billion (about US$1.28 billion) to NT$50 billion (about US$1.66 billion) for this year to fund capacity expansion at its second 12-inch wafer fab, according to company spokesperson Eric Tang. PSC now expects the monthly capacity at its second 12-inch wafer fab to reach 30,000-35,000 units by year-end, 10,000 more than what company general manager Brian Shieh stated in the second half of April. PSC also plans to provide more products at the second 12-inch wafer fab to satisfy the needs of its clients. Tang indicated that the newly added capacity will be used to produce DDR2 and NAND flash memories. PSC will be able to process 60,000 wafers from its two 12-inch wafer fabs per month next quarter, 30% of which will be dedicated to DDR2 chips, Tang added. "We believe declines in memory bookings will likely not be offset by a sufficient pick up in logic in the second half with foundries operating only at approximately 75% utilizations." Take a look at KLAC geographic distribution for orders over the last two quarters; in both quarters NorthAmerica was below historical average while bookings continue to decline. Now Who is located in NorthAmerica? It's all logic with the exception of Micron! TI, IBM, AMD (unless it's booked under Europe) and of course Intel - not just the foundries Turning to memory prices, CSFB indicated that 256MB DRAM spot prices decreased approximately 40% from the end of fourth quarter of 2005 to the end of first quarter of 2005. The research firm did say, however, that "[prices] have stabilized since then, as incremental supply has been diverted to NAND." NAND prices remained stable during the same period, but have increased approximately 20% at the end of first quarter 2005. Increase in pricing seems to contradict that significant capacity was diverted. I believe the transition to DDR2 which requires more advanced technology could also be a (positive) wild card

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14905)	5/11/2005 1:42:55 AM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Turning to memory prices, CSFB indicated that 256MB DRAM spot prices decreased approximately 40% from the end of fourth quarter of 2005 to the end of first quarter of 2005. For the quarter, worldwide DRAM revenue fell to $6.6 billion, down 10 percent sequentially, but increased by 16 percent compared to the first quarter of 2004. Regardless that spot is a relatively small portion unit growth must have been pretty strong to offset pricing decline Micron regains second place in iSuppli DRAM ranks Peter Clarke EE Times (05/10/2005 12:35 PM EDT) LONDON — In the first quarter of 2005 Micron Technology Inc. (Boise, Idaho) has regained second place in iSuppli's ranking of DRAM vendors. Micron has displaced long time rival Hynix Semiconductor Inc. and lies in second position behind Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd., according to preliminary market share data from iSuppli Corp. (El Segundo, Calif.). Hynix had claimed the second spot in the second and fourth quarters of 2004 and for the year as a whole. In the first quarter Micron increased its DRAM bit shipments by more than 20 percent, while Hynix's shipments increased by slightly less than 20 percent, according to iSuppli. All the leading vendors were hit by declining selling prices with Micron posting the best revenue performance among the top-four DRAM suppliers in the first quarter, suffering a 2 percent decline in sales. In contrast, Hynix's DRAM revenue declined by 9 percent for the quarter, the market research company said. For the quarter, worldwide DRAM revenue fell to $6.6 billion, down 10 percent sequentially, but increased by 16 percent compared to the first quarter of 2004. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. took 31.1 percent of DRAM revenue in the first quarter, up 4.9 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2004. DRAM sales at Infineon Technologies Inc. contracted by 18 percent. Nanya Technology Corp. reclaimed its position as Taiwan's leading DRAM supplier, passing Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. Nanya increased its sales by 3 percent on a sequential basis. With DRAM prices continuing to decrease in the second quarter, a few suppliers are expected to post losses for the period, the first time this has occurred since the third quarter of 2003, iSuppli said. Decreasing DRAM profitability is prompting Korean suppliers to aggressively shift their DRAM capacity to NAND flash memory, which is commanding higher margins. Samsung announced that growth in its DRAM bit production will amount to only 4 percent in the second quarter compared to 16 percent in the first quarter. Hynix has also announced that it would boost its flash memory production by converting additional DRAM capacity to NAND this quarter, iSuppli said. The market research company said it was maintaining a "negative" rating for the near-term DRAM market conditions, but added that the bottom of the DRAM cycle is near.

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14905)	5/12/2005 10:44:53 PM
From: etchmeister	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

" The research outfit added, "We continue to believe memory capex will decline from approximately 50% of total bookings in the first quarter to a long-term average of approximately 25% to 30% exiting the year; increases in capex by memory companies does nothing to help the excess supply we see brewing in memory through the year." I believe the number (50%) is unusually high due to investment in (NAND) flash memory - not all went into DRAM; even a 12 % decline in DRAM is pretty much a non event compared to the past (previous DRAM cycles); I believe DRAM sales were down 10% (units up / ASP's down) in Q1 2005 according to DT; hence a 4% decline would call for an uptick in the second half of 2005. 36% increase would require unit growth combined with a move to higher densities/advanced technology . Samsung says DRAMs down but flash up in '05, '06 EE Times (05/12/2005 2:41 PM EDT) SAN JOSE, Calif. — The DRAM industry is shrinking but the flash-memory market continues to explode, according to an executive from Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. on Thursday (May 12). In a report from the Xinhua news agency in Hong Kong, a Samsung executive said that the DRAM market is projected to fall 4 percent in 2005 and another 12 percent in 2006. The decline is due to DRAM oversupply, which will continue until the third quarter of this year, according to the report. "We expect a strong rebound in the third and fourth quarters with strong PC shipment growth," said Robert Yi, a vice president at Samsung, in the report. It's a different story for NAND flash-memory, which is expected to grow 8 percent in 2005 and 36 percent in 2006, according to Samsung.