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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (43903)	5/11/2005 1:53:52 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206326

Thanks for the update. I have mostly followed the OIH and I agree with your analysis. There are stocks within the group that behave differently than the sector and that intrigues me because this divergence will reverse itself at some point, but I tend to think that the majority of the stocks represent the feeling towards the sector more accurately than a couple of stocks behaving differently for whatever reason. At the end of the day, the changes need to be measured over time frames that are longer term I think. Separately, I added to my steel stocks that many are so bearish on, specifically RIO and SID, at 27 and 17.70, respectively. It is a funny situation where we have enough inventories of oil and gas today (well above historical averages) with high prices and analysts are bullish whereas basic materials stocks are getting crushed despite there not being enough materials or ore around and prices having just risen 72% effective April 1st. Capacity will be added but it will be years before it comes on line. The dichotomy is interesting and I almost want to do a pairs trade being long a basket of ore and steel stocks and short a basket of energy stocks or service stocks of sorts. Have to give that some thought. Best regards,

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (43903)	5/12/2005 10:46:47 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 206326

KB, it looks like all of the symbols you mentioned "DID NOT" set a higher high from the last rally, confirming the down trend is still intact, as you said it was. Good call. Beats me how you can make a call as accurate as the one in the message I am linking to. Oil prices are high, rig counts are up and so is demand. Prices should be heading higher, no? Beats me how you come up with calls that are accurate and with impeccable timing. Congratulations. You done good. I'm sure glad I didn't try and guess a bottom on those positions or worse, double up on any of them. dabum

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (43903)	5/13/2005 9:16:48 AM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206326

Urgent Need for North Sea Minnows to Mature by Alastair Reed The Scotsman 5/6/2005 URL: rigzone.com Independent North Sea oil and gas companies must become far more dynamic and broadly focused if the region's 25-30 billion barrels- worth of estimated reserves are to be tapped successfully, a new report has found. According to the latest "state-of-the-industry" report from venture capital group 3i, the North Sea's oil and gas minnows need to evolve from traditional exploration and production groups into multi-faceted companies "with the resources to exploit market and technological developments". Even with estimated North Sea reserves standing at about 28 billion, according to the UK Offshore Operators Association, the fields are becoming increasingly disparate and difficult to pump. The structure of the sector does not help the situation, with a number of fields owned by a raft of smaller operators, which have been unable to fully utilise them through lack of capital or technical expertise. Despite calls for consolidation, many smaller outfits are unattractive as investment targets due to the level of risk involved with just one asset. As a result, the Department of Trade and Industry now estimates that more than 300 oil fields are lying dormant in the North Sea because operators haven't been able to sufficiently develop them. However, according to Graeme Sword, 3i's head of oil and gas, this situation combined with record oil prices - now tipped to stay at dollars 50 for the year - offers new opportunities for innovation. He said: "Opportunities were excellent in 2004; now they are unprecedented for the industry itself. Smaller companies are really struggling to acquire assets. There are a lot of them chasing producing fields, but at current prices there's just no reason for the majors to sell when they can generate such strong cash-flows." Instead, Sword is advocating a business model along the lines of Scottish company Energy Development Partners (EDP), which was founded by chairman Larry Kinch in September 2003. Unlike most North Sea operators, EDP does not directly own assets, but through a partner takes technical control of projects. It then takes a share of production in each deal. Sword said: "The current market is playing right into EDP's hands; in this environment, when the majors don't really want to sell assets, when the need to keep reserves on the balance sheet, when they need to show that they're getting replacement ratios ... all this fits the model." (C) 2005 The Scotsman. via ProQuest Information and Learning Company; All Rights Reserved ******************************************************** This doesn't mention ATPG but ATP's business model is not all that different from EDP, the company mentioned in the article.