To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (14939 ) 5/12/2005 1:47:35 PM From: Return to Sender Respond to of 25522 Applied Materials Ahead of Earnings Jocelynn Drake (jdrake@sir-inc.com) 5/12/2005 12:49 PM ETschaeffersresearch.com While the earnings spotlight has begun to dim at last, there are still a few heavy hitters that are due to slide into the limelight. One particularly interesting stock is Applied Materials (AMAT: sentiment, chart, options) . The firm develops, manufactures, markets, and services integrated circuit fabrication equipment for the worldwide semiconductor industry. The company makes systems that perform the primary steps in the chip fabrication process, including atomic layer deposition, chemical vapor deposition, physical vapor deposition, electrochemical plating, etch, ion implantation, rapid thermal processing, chemical mechanical polishing, wafer metrology and inspection, and systems that generate, etch, measure and inspect circuit patterns on masks used in the photolithography process. AMAT is slated to slip into the earnings confessional on May 17 after the close. The Street is prognosticating a profit of 17 cents per share, down from its year-ago gain of 22 cents per share. Historically, the firm has been a strong performer, as it has surpassed the consensus estimate for the past five quarters by an average of 16 percent. Technically speaking, the shares have been rather lackluster, underperforming the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite (COMP). In fact, the security's weekly relative-strength measure versus the COMP has slid lower since November 2003. Moving in for a closer look, the stock has rebounded from its mid-April low of 14.33, but is facing potential resistance in the 16.25 area. This region marks a 50-percent retracement of the stock's decline from its late-February high of 18.14. What's more, the equity must still conquer resistance in the form of its 20-week trendline at 16.20. AMAT has not closed a week above this intermediate-term moving average since the beginning of March. From a longer-term perspective, the shares are battling resistance at their 10-month moving average, a trendline the stock has closed only one month above during the past year. Despite the security's rather disappointing technical performance, investors continue to bet rather heavily on a rally in the shares. The stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) has steadily declined since late March, indicating that speculators are adding calls at a faster rate than puts in the front three months of options. What's more, the current reading of 0.60 is lower than 79 percent of all those taken during the past 52 weeks.Short sellers have also abandoned their bearish bets. In April, the number of AMAT shares sold short dropped by five percent to 39.2 million shares, resulting in a short-interest ratio of only 1.37 days to cover. This paltry accumulation of bearish bets offers up little in the way of potential short-covering support. Checking in on Wall Street, we find that the brokerage firms following AMAT are leaning slightly toward the bulls' camp. According to Zacks, 13 of the 24 analysts following the company rate it a "buy" or better, while just one gives the stock a "sell" rating. This bullish configuration leaves ample room for potential downgrades should the tech firm fail to impress the Street next week with its earnings report. Overall, this combination of lackluster technicals and overwhelming optimism has earned AMAT a Schaeffer's Equity Scorecard ranking of 2.0 out of 10, indicating that the path of least resistance may continue to be lower for the shares.