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To: ild who wrote (32278)	5/12/2005 3:17:23 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Thu May 12 2005 15:06 trotsky (Earl Grey) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved that stock market return needs to be adjusted for inflation, which lowers it by about 96% ( i.e., past century ) . Date: Thu May 12 2005 15:02 trotsky (frustrated@volume) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved well, i didn't actually want to imply that today IS a low volume day...by all indications it'll be the a relatively strong volume day compared to recent action, and i take that as a positive development. if today were yet another decline on extremely low volume, i'd expect more declines until high volume kicked in ( will it be enough? that i don't know... ) . Date: Thu May 12 2005 14:55 trotsky (@flation) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved the various markets continue to act as they would if they expected deflation, not inflation. it's highly likely that the recent prominence the term 'stagflation' has received in both the financial and non-financial press is a contrarian sign in this respect. it wouldn't be if bonds were actually going down, but bonds obviously keep going up no matter what the Fed does ( presumably they will only correct when the Fed starts easing again ) . Date: Thu May 12 2005 14:22 trotsky (Romanov@low volume) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i don't consider that bullish....unless it occurs at a 'disinterest' type bottom after a very large decline ( e.g. the Dow in mid 1932 ) . in a market that is considered to be in a long term bull phase, bottoms usually occur on high volume declines. Date: Thu May 12 2005 14:19 trotsky (Kodie@Alaskan oil) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved actually, Prudhoe Bay is a prime example of the Hubbert peak in action at large fields ( Siberia's Samotlor is also a good example ) . its daily throughput is at this time over 70% below its peak production that was reached in 1987. it sure has declined just as fast as the Hubbert curve predicts. the worrysome thing is that 20% of global oil demand is satisfied from just 14 giant fields - all of which are quite old. 'peak oil' is generally misunderstood apparently...it doesn't mean we're going to run out of oil, only that we're going to run out of the cheap and easy to produce stuff. the market will no doubt adapt to that, but the transition will likely be a difficult period for the global economy.