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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (24824)	5/13/2005 10:38:42 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 108547

Fillmore.... re: your post on another thread: ["I agree that HUI can and probably will drop to 150 or lower. But this will take a few months IMHO and there will be much volatility on the way down. I expect gold bullion to drop below $400 (but not much below) before the gold bull resumes. Influential supply siders with considerable influence on Bushie economic policies strongly believe that gold must drop below $400 before the Fed can safely reverse course."] You are spot on about the attempt to pound GOLD down to $400...and Kudlow et al are over the top in openly trying to cram those talking points down our collective throats. I don't think they'll be able to push Gold to, or below $400....unless some CB comes out with something off the wall. I agree on HUI 150. Prior resistance often becomes future support. But, imo...for those that have been holding light goldstock positions here....you must start accumulating here...thru 150 if seen. Gap those buys and average back in. If you believe in Summers Barsky, or in an ultimately lower USD...either way...this is a buying opp. Again; I think the single biggest factor in Gold/Goldstocks will be the transition away from being a purely anti-US Dollar play...and moving toward being a Summers-Barsky anti-Stock/Bond returns play. ...we shall see. This is what makes markets very interesting. Saville and only a few other people called the US Dollar reversal... (Sujjerand as well if I recall ?) while they did get the US Dollar bounce call correct, imho - they didn't get the reason WHY correct. The Fed has had to keep the Hedgies honest on the coming RMB:USD repeg...and had to prop up the USD to keep the confidence lid on the maket admidst all the warning bells and sirens going off - all around them. Buffet aint blinking... nor should he. The more important call is identifying the Transition from Gold/goldstocks being a negative US Dollar correlation trade... to now a Summers-Barsky Model Trade...ie: a negative Stock/Bond total market return - negative correlation trade. THAT... is the bankable call & trade here...and why you can't wait for HUI to begin getting back into goldstocks here. Barsky-Summers advocates will get Golds ramping on small/negative bond/stock returns over the coming years and US Dollar negative correlation traders will ultimately get more US Dollar downside wind in their sails shortly as well once the Chinese do their little re-peg.