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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (7144)	5/14/2005 6:38:30 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

That canary in the coal mine. I have been bearish Gold for a while. A warning was the high in the metal unconfirmed by the stocks in Q3O4. This was then followed by the turn down in Quarterly charts for the stocks, followed by a lower high with weekly stochastics turning down from a lower high on weekly charts. We are now firmly below the 55 wk MA. Cyclical BEAR! It now appears that $HUI is testing its 04 lows on the Yearly chart !!! I have not been trading for a while, and have not really been paying attention. The Dollar has just turned its own quarterly chart up and Gold stocks are close to turning Yearly charts down? If the XAU and HUI turn their YEARLY charts down, then it would suggest that the rise in gold stocks from 2000/2001 may not have been the start of the major Secular move that many (myself included) had thought - confirmation would come from a turn down in the 55Mth EMA which is a good few quarters away. For Gold stocks - we are at support on yearly charts, and above flat to rising 55Wk EMAs. If quarterly charts do not turn up before the year end (now at HUI=227) then my bet is that we are not heading into a recession but rather a depression where cash is king - aka Japan. As I said previously, when you look at monthly charts one can see some gloom. For me, we are a few months away from technical confirmation, but I would be careful of any reflationist rally here that fails before forming new highs. We are now oversold enough for the bulls to mount a seriously powerful rally if the secular trend really is bullish. If this fails look out below. Inflation? Possibly - yes; probably - no! macavity