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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (161999)	5/14/2005 1:27:27 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I agree. Nor do I think any fallow up admins will opt for early exit, let alone the 3-state solution.

To: bentway who wrote (161999)	5/14/2005 4:14:14 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 281500

I believe if we left, Iraq would develop into three states. Maybe, but not peacefully. You might easily get a higher level of bloodshed than we have no in the process, and any of the three states, esp. the Sunni one will be at risk of becoming a haven for terrorists and a sign of their victory. Our attempt to maintain the status quo without Saddam-scale repression will fail. I don't think the current government is doomed to fail, or doomed to fail without Saddam-scale repression. Perhaps if we had reached for a three-state solution earlier, we might have had more success. If we were going to have any decent chance of it working well it would have had to have been our aim from the begining, but even than it would have probably been more difficult than our current path. There would be war between the three states over who gets the oil and who gets what territory. Maybe we could have supressed the war but then we would be doing as much fighting as we are doing now. Tim