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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Condor who wrote (63849)	5/15/2005 12:03:57 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

C, Deja vu, not in the sense "I've been there before", but in the sense "I've read this story before" The days and weeks up to the 1929 collapse was punctuated by margin investors liquidating. The hedgies are the margin investors of today, their deleveraging and dumping issues on the market (and buying Treasuries) looks like the beginning of the rush to the exits. Remember Tobago Jack recommends that you, myself, and others make our helicopter reservations early when seats are still available. I probably have the same bets as you...cash, housing subprime lender and index puts, PMs, physical PM. I still have some energy investments for the very long term. Recently I've been adding utilities (COU.UN, CF.UN) as some have been performing well, jumping above their 30 wk dma. I am, however, reminded that Keynes lost money buying utilities yielding 15%. Anyway, my bet is the hedgies are adding these as well, and this sector rotation benefits the supposedly defensive utilities. You asked about my point. My point was that we might be getting close to a major move in the markets. I would not be surprised, though, if Greenspan makes some soothing speech even before the FOMC meets. I would also not be surprised to see, after the FOMC meeting that announces rate-raising is done, equities try to rally higher for awhile as one worry is removed from the market. If we get a rally in June, it will probably be the last time in a very long time to liquidate positions at a decent price and buy options with low volatility. I think there is a risk we don't make it to the June FOMC without a major drop, but if someone put a gun to my head I would still be on the market holding together through June. FWIW. D