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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (63889)	5/15/2005 7:52:44 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

Quite right TJ, gold might not be dear enough, and oil also too cheap. But they might not. An alternative to the US$ coming down because China pay rates are so low by comparison, is that China's pay rates will go up. An alternative to the yuan being too cheap in US$, with everyone demanding a revaluation, is for China to pixelate another trillion or three of them which would be a mighty fine dilution, which would mean pay rates would go up even more, Hu Jintao could go shopping in a big way for all sorts of infrastructure and other things he fancies and the US$ would then be too cheap and should be revalued. $1 a barrel at the well-head, and $6 a gallon in your SUV pays for a lot of happy middle-men AND enables a LOT of competitors to find a niche in the energy industry. RD? What's that? So I'm obviously not qualified to comment. BP PLC I know a little about, but not enough to comment on its investment value at current share prices. My guess is that people are so enthused about Hubbert's Peak and the price of oil and BP's expected profits because of vast and rising demand, that they are currenly paying way too much for a BP share. Lord Browne says oil is too expensive and BP won't be buying reserves at current prices. I would bet along those lines. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (63889)	5/16/2005 1:59:19 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

TJ, Citigroup on Global Equities Back to technology...GULP citigroupgeo.com D

To: TobagoJack who wrote (63889)	5/16/2005 2:00:56 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

TJ, Regarding BP and that RD (is that Research and Development?) you'll find some analysis at www.mcdep.com mcdep.com The McDep ratio gives some idea of value (though not location of holdings) D

To: TobagoJack who wrote (63889)	5/16/2005 2:08:27 AM
From: Taikun	Respond to of 74559

TJ, <Priced in gold ... oil is still too expensive> Depends on when you measure. A spike in oil does not immediately slow down the economy, and it takes awhile for the market to react. 72% of gold's price can be explained by the performance of equities. (When equities underperform gold performs) australiangold.org.au So, if you wait for oil's effects to wind their way through the economy to stocks, you will find the resultant increase in gold prices into the ratio. Since commodities, energy are a late business cycle play, you would expect shortages to occur while markets are still rising and investors anticipate earnings growth. Gold has to react to the deflation story. Then we get gold rising. D