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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan P who wrote (927)	5/16/2005 10:59:54 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Wade & Dan et al, Interesting observations Wade and Dan. The frustration with the fact that the XAU includes significant base metal stocks and the weighting of the HUI,is, if I recall correctly, the reason Richard asked for the Barron's GMI info. It was argued that it better represents PM stocks. I promised myself that I would put the data I have posted into a spread sheet and see what additional info we might be able to extract from it. I haven't found the time --- yet. I just went back to Paul's post of the reference for the data showing the meaning of variations in the ratio and it seems to have disappeared. But I do recall that bottoms are indicated by number in the range of 1.00 or below. I will post the most recent ratios below and you will see that the ratio continues in the range where it doesn't tell us much. I notice that the TIC indicates that foreign investment for March fell well short of the amount necessary to cover our trade deficit. The dollar didn't seem to be impacted. The Deficit itself appeared to improve - dropped to under 60 billion but the major reason was the commitment to purchase a lot of commercial jets. The whole purchase was credited as a sale. Therefore, I think the dollar is living on borrowed time and when it turns down, PM will turn up big time. I haven't noticed anything in Barron's recently of particular significance to PMs nor have lease rates told me anything. They are just very very low. So; I will get on with posting the Barron's GMI info for the past two weeks. The GMI/POG ratio: On 5/5, the Barron's GMI was 587.73 up from the previous week's 560.46. With the POG down significantly at 425.15(5/6), the ratio was up at 1.38. On 5/12, the Barron's GMI was 547.82 down from the previous week's 587.73. With the POG down at 420.00(5/13), the ratio was down at 1.30. The ratio continues on the low side of the middle range but it doesn't suggest strongly a rise or drop in the POG. It is clear that there is essentially no speculation behind the price of stocks at this time. The ratio a year ago was 1.38, reflecting the fact that the optimism had been taken out of the markets. Larry