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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (15025)	5/17/2005 6:32:59 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

I think time may be on your side in terms of evaluating the correct time to buy into AMAT, or any other semi equip stock for that matter. There have been many reports by "some" analysts recently that are predicting "flat" or "negative" growth for 2005 and 2006 - higher expenditures for capex are predicted in 2007. If true, companies such as AMAT may "wander around" their present prices for many months yet before strong gains in stock prices occur. As pointed out by many before on this thread, and other threads, stock prices will start to rise in anticipation of better business conditions 6 to 12 months prior to the actual appearance of measurable data that confirms this environment. The outlook, as presented by AMAT tonight, for AMAT's 3rd quarter was not as good as expected as reported by this article at the Street.com thestreet.com <<Applied Materials' Profit, Sales Take a Plunge By Bill Snyder TheStreet.com Staff Reporter 5/17/2005 5:42 PM EDT Sales, profit and new orders for Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq - commentary - research) dropped sharply year over year in the second quarter, but were actually somewhat better than the company's guidance and Wall Street's expectations. The outlook for the third quarter, however, was solidly below expectations, and in recent after-hours, trading the stock was off 31 cents, or nearly 2%, to $15.73.>> [snip] It's the 3rd quarter outlook below expectations that "hurts". The stock probably won't "take off" when the business outlook is below wall street expectations. The question is - how much longer until order input expectations(and actuals) improve? The answer to this question is most important. If we knew the answer, we could "time" our buying much better.