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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SOROS who wrote (24964)	5/17/2005 6:16:13 PM
From: Zincman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108786

What do you suggest we all do? TIA/eom

To: SOROS who wrote (24964)	5/18/2005 12:40:09 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 108786

re: ["you'll be a genius if this IS the bottom and we don't get what almost EVERYONE is expecting -- a tiny bump followed by another wave of selling."] I'll take lucky over genius (vbg). More feel/art of trading than genius/science of trading imho. re: your quote of : ["I really cannot remember when the sentiment on gold was so negative "] - Exactly. ...other than into the bottom in November-December 2000...this IS the worst that sentiment has been since. RARELY do you get this level of Sentiment & Shareprice washout....with STILL very, very positive fundamentals. You MUST seize these opportunities....they are rare, they are anomalies... mispriced environments that you can not hesititate to go - "all in" on (not max-margin) but, to whatever your "full weighting" is for golds. Imho... the USD rally of late is half related to a Short Shake-Out and the other half is more related to a weakening Euro Economy and hence a weaker Euro Currency than it is strong US Dollar Fundamentals. The USD still has further to fall imho...and as we've discussed in relation to the work of Bob Hoye & Peter Palmedo... we don't necessarially need a weak, or falling US Dollar for Gold to rise. The stealth rally of Gold in other currencies is another new promising development. 3 Main Reasons for me moving back strongly into goldstocks here: 1. extreme valuation divergence gap between the HUI & Bullion. 2. As you accurately noted; Sentiment is washed out as bad as any time other than what existed as we entered the ultimate Cycle bottom in late 2000. 3. Virtually all of the main catalysts for Higher Gold are still intact... with very high levels of systemic risk and the likliehood of a prolonged multi-year period of low, or negative returns for Stocks & Bonds being very likely imho...and I agree with Hoye & Palmedo that THIS will ultimately become THE main upside driver for Gold. ...well, I basically finished the day - "all in" as far as what a full position is for me here in this environment. - 67.5% total portfolio weighting long Goldstocks. I'll keep relatively tight stops on half of that...and don't have any fear if I have to carry a 30%ish Portfolio weighted down into HUI 150 if seen...and re-build back to a full weighting at those levels. - 12.5 % short FNM, Subprime, In & Out on the Homies & Oils, Hi-Flying broad market fav's. - 5% Misc long. - 15% Cash. With the Junior's, Emerging Producers & Exploreres getting disproportionately hammered... for the first time ever - I am over-weighted to the Jr's & Explorers. 65% Juniors, Emerging Producers & Explorers: Main Basket: NG KRY AUY NTO OZN MFN MRB GRZ CLG IVN Smaller Basket of :BGO MNG HRG.to ANO DPM.to NSU QEE..couple other small begining positions. 35% Majors/Large Caps: Mainly GG & MDG as the cleanest balance sheet/low cost producers with excellent management. HMY, GFI.... GOLD, LIHRY... & CDE for Silver levg. Only time will tell...bottomline: I'm a trader, I was sitting mainly in Cash for months....a tremendous divergence in value between the stocks & the metal occured, into a washout of sentiment - while the fundamentals and the metal still look good.... THAT is a Trade you must ALWAYS take imo. ...I'm in, we shall see....