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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drbob512 who wrote (91367)	5/18/2005 7:39:02 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Hi Drbob, Thanks much. Here's the board, but I don't really host it. I just post there: Subject 55698 Personally, I see this as much more than a technical relief rally. We are still in the middle of a fully intact long-term uptrend. I think that will continue with considerable enthusiasm now through the end of the year. After that, I think there are increasingly ominous storm clouds on the horizon. I can't yet tell when it might start raining hard, but I don't see this happening any time this year. My guesstimate at this point is that things will begin to unravel sometime in the late spring of 2006, but it is too soon to say for sure. Over the very long term (5 years+), I think the chances are getting higher and higher that we are in for an extended downturn in the equities markets that will have major global consequences. This could well mean that the highs from this current bull run will not be seen again for a decade or more, perhaps two. Again, we'll have to see how things develop over the rest of the year to be able to say anything with any reasonable chance of accuracy. But this is why I have been posting for weeks now that the only thing to do is to beg borrow and steal every last penny you can and throw it into this market on the long side. We may not see another opportunity like this for a very long time, in fact that is what I expect (although this is not yet a foregone conclusion; maybe 60/40 or 70/30 odds or thereabouts). I also don't think energy is a significant determinant of anything at this point. That could change with time. But I posted something about this a while back. Conventional wisdom says that as oil rises, stocks should fall. Conversely, falling oil is bullish for stocks, right? Well, I once calculated the correlation coefficient between crude futures prices and QQQQ prices. There was not the expected negative correlation at all, in fact, the correlation was positive, albeit weak. Message 21242727 People didn't like that surprising conclusion, and questioned me about it. Here was my answer, FWIW: Message 21301491 T