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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ChinuSFO who wrote (61590)	5/18/2005 8:34:50 AM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81568

No, why should I? Do you?

To: ChinuSFO who wrote (61590)	5/18/2005 10:15:26 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 81568

US Count Votes: Keep the Pressure on Mitofsky regarding bogus exit poll results -- (From Email) Hello Everyone, Significant revisions have been made to US Count Vote's newest analysis of the exit polls which contribute substantially to the science of exit poll analysis, and more strongly rebut the reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. In particular, the derivation of the formula for exit poll discrepancy, WPE, caused by vote shift, and more accurate charts of the exit poll discrepancy patterns caused by vote shift were added today. Now it can be stated that the exit poll pattern in the Edison/Mitofsky exit poll data is clearly more consistent with vote shift of 6% from Kerry to Bush + an exit poll response bias that is considered very normal (i.e. Kerry voters responding slightly more in Kerry strongholds, and Bush voters responding more in Bush strongholds) than it is with the reluctant Bush responder hypothesis of Edison/Mitofsky. If you have done what we must all do to ensure that the correctly elected candidates are sworn into office in January 07, by forwarding a copy of our newest paper to your elected representatives to educate them, you may want to re-forward the revised copy, or plan on forwarding it as soon as it is finalized in a few weeks. uscountvotes.org Below is an excerpt from Steve Freeman's email today to Mitofsky, the exit pollster: ------------------------------------------ The fact that the original authors of the USCountVotes papers, myself included, did not sign the current release does NOT imply that we no longer believe the arguments, just that we lack time and resources to uphold our end of a fruitless non-debate. The recent fuss over WPE and alternative analyses is about whether the E/M model proposed to account for unprecedented differences between their exit polls and the recorded vote is impossibly implausible or just highly implausible. The bottom line remains that there is no evidence - or even theory - of differential response. There has never been any. The E/M data itself fails to substantiate the claim, and may, in fact, undermine the claim entirely. Without access to the data, it's difficult to know. The unexplained questions about the exit poll and the election have certainly NOT been answered in Miami or anywhere else. In a system where campaign managers serve as election supervisors, where voting machines provide no assurance that votes are counted as cast, where a wide array of other "irregularities" (a.k.a. vote manipulation and mistabulation) were documented, and where counts and "recounts" are conducted in secret, the exit poll results stand out as conspiciously suspicious. The exit poll data, for all its limitations, is one of the only means to gain both national and specific insights into whether, in fact, the official reported results of the presidential election were even in the ballpark. That this relevant data has not been made available for independent analysis is an outrage for members of an organization that considers itself part of the scientific community. It's an outrage for people that consider themselves patriotic citizens of a democratic nation. Indeed of all the multitude of unexplained questions, perhaps the most puzzling is how highly intelligent, apparently decent men can take the stand that the data must not be independently analyzed. ----------------------- Best, Kathy Dopp electionarchive.org