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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (24974)	5/18/2005 9:47:01 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 108787

LP.......... You've flipped flopped so often on Oil and Gold since your recent arrival on SI & repeated attempts to frontrun the news of the day, from China Risk, to China Boom, from Oil retracement, to - to the moon... that I've quit trying to figure out which direction the wind is blowing you on a particular day, or subject. re: ["Gold now either needs a healthy extra dose of that particular action, or, a healthy failure of that effort."] Actually per the earlier posted Link to Palmedo's work on Summers & Barsky/Gibsons Paradox... Gold does NOT need extreme's - ie: "extra doses"...yes, it did perform well in a reflation & US Dollar decline...but, it is most levered longterm to real returns from Stocks & Bonds sub 5% for levered outperformance. re: ["Gross is pointing to a chronic no man's land. Not good for gold at all, imo. But perhaps not dire, either."] 110% WRONG....absolutely the anthesis conclusion of Hoye, Palmedo and many here. That is an ideal environment for Gold and a market and investors who have been chasing "Alpha" and are addicted to double-digit market returns. Here's the longterm 18 year negative correlation dispelling your conclusion: Return from Capital Markets..... = Expected Return for Gold: + 6% ........................... = + 2% for Gold Bullion + 4% ........................... = + 7% for Gold Bullion + 2% ........................... = + 12% for Gold Bullion 0/flat......................... = + 17% for Gold Bullion - 2 %........................... = + 22% for Gold Bullion Goldstocks on average have 2:1 or higher leverage to Bullion. yada, yada, yip, yip... you go into the Loantech, supplyside econ et al chihuahua file.