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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: autopilot who wrote (91375)	5/18/2005 10:46:17 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Hi AP, I see a short-term trend change for several reasons: $TICKs are rising from neutral to low levels; that tells me there is more upside left today. But $TRINs are rising from very low levels, volatilities have dropped to support and look ready to reverse very soon, and CBOE put/call is getting to bullish extremes (currently 0.73). These all spell an end to the short-term uptrend very soon. Taken together then, I think the market internals indicate upside into the afternoon, with a pullback beginning after 2pm or possibly as late as the open tomorrow. Volume patterns strongly indicate an imminent pullback also. And $37.00 is chart resistance. QQQQ has driven right through several key resistance levels, including the critical 200 sma. Currently, it has traded up to $36.98 so far today, but has now pulled back some from those highs, and is currently printing $36.94. Volume is fairly strong at 39 million so far, less than 90 minutes into the session. I suspect $36.98 will be the high of the day today. Intraday and daily momentum indicators show relatively overbought conditions, which is consistent with (but not of itself indicative of) a pullback soon. So there's quite a bit of evidence for a pullback, and little evidence that I can see for continued unabated upside at this time. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[db][pd20,2!b50][vc60][iLg!Lyb20,2.0]&pref=G BUT: I don't expect a pullback to last long. Support at the 200 sma might hold (currently $36.60), but I think it is more likely we'll see a pullback to either the 50 sma (currently $36.08) or chart support at $35.95. Then, reversal and a strong challenge at $37.00 overhead that will be successful (assuming volume patterns develop favorably, as I expect). T