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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gush who wrote (63971)	5/19/2005 1:41:44 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

Gush, Uncle Al KBE is the most admired bloke this side of the black stump in these parts. There are one or two psycho freaks who might pipe up, bewildered and confused, who think that he was responsible for the irrational exuberance which was filling fevered minds in early Y2K, but all he did was identify what would be the problem when the crunch inevitably came. When it did, which he couldn't prevent anyway, as maniacal buyers can always bid prices as high as they like, he did the right thing and had positioned himself in preceding years to be able to do the right thing, which was pixelate umpty $billions of hot new money and cut, cut, cut, cut interest rates to 40 year lows. Basically, all-time lows, as zero is as low as an interest rate can go. Even with the significant event of the Twin Towers attack and the rest, and the ensuing conflicts, and rising oil prices he was able to avoid a cascading collapse of imploding debt and bankruptcies [which had been my nightmare for a couple of years before]. Now, day-trading is a fond memory, most suicides are over [yes, I know of one], unemployment is stable and a lot of new jobs obtained to replace biotelecosmictechdot.com losses, bankruptcies are mostly complete, fevered hopes of instant wealth and visits to the Sudden Wealth Syndrome psychologists are few and far between. The last stage of the tidying up is well underway, with interest rates having risen several steps already and about the same to go. Oil prices are higher than they can stay, being in gravity-suspended mode like Wile E Coyote over a cliff, while oil's market share is eroded by thousands of interlopers from ethanol to photovoltaics, insulation, smaller vehicles, hybrid super-efficient vehicles, new aircraft which do more miles per litre per passenger [which will of course encourage more passengers and fuel demand]. As energy supplies boom, and energy prices drop, economies will get another acceleration. We hold Uncle Al KBE worship meetings each Friday. Visitors welcome. TraderMike is around, occasionally, but like the second coming, we are all still waiting for the title of the original heading to come true The Great Financial Collapse of 2001. I'm a heretic and denied that it would happen, though my irrationally exuberant expectations that there would be only a one or two year dip were off the mark. There was a dip in the Dow and a big crunch in the Nasdaq Biotelecosmictechdot.com realm, but unemployment never got going, there was no financial collapse, the world stayed on an even keel, China went on roaring ahead, growing 10% a year, Japan was fine and Euros were okay too, though they too experienced a dip [not a Great Financial Collapse, with currencies repudiated, gold the world's mantra [$2000 an ounce being expected by some crazed Aztec types around these parts], bankruptcies galore and all that financial collapses cause]. Mqurice