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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (30512)	5/20/2005 3:26:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Hi, this is Tim Hannagan, and it is Friday, May 20th, and this is my weekly review. CORN: Corn’s demand side fundamental reports read like this: Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed inspections down 18 m.b. from the week prior, suggesting poor demand this week. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 854 t.t. of corn was sold last week off 39% from the week prior but 8% over our weak four week average. Demand remain soft but Asian sales remain good so look at demand signals as neutral near term. The crop progress report Monday put planting of our projected record 81.4 million acres at 89% complete versus the five year average of 79% with 42% emerged from the ground and in need of warm sunny days and timely moisture. This week saw the overly wet western belt states of Iowa and Nebraska see even more rain. It is not a problem as some might think because planting is ahead of the 5 year average. Rain makes grain. The previously dry areas central and east received some rain but totals were not enough to replenish top and sub-soil conditions. These areas are central and southern Illinois and Indiana. The main concern that pulled corn off last Friday’s 2.03 low basis July to a 2.13 area high this week was that temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees below normal during evening and or daytime leading to a slower emergence rate. Monday could give us our first crop condition report of the year and we should expect it to be poor. Wxrisk.com sees next week as also being cooler and with only light rain next Thursday over 50% of the acres planted. BEAN: Let’s address the demand side fundamentals first. Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed 9.9 m.b. were inspected for near term export, up from 8.2 the week prior and 4.2 a year ago. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 377 t.t. of beans were sold last week up from 166 the week prior and 68% over our four week average. Demand remains robust as we fill needs that Brazil’s drought created. Monday’s crop progress report put planting of this year’s projected 73.9 m.a. crop at 46% complete with 11% emerged from the ground. We are ahead of the five year planting pace of 39%. We need to get further along on planting before weather issues get serious volatility going but you can see by this week’s action that volatility is picking up. The trade expects Monday’s crop progress report to show 75% planted. With fundamentals all bullish and those are, better demand thanks to the Brazilian drought and threat of Asian rust traders want to be long. Weekend rains look very light as well as next Thursday’s next system but if your lucky enough to get lower trade Monday buy September long and with Tuesday turn around technical strength put a 1 cent profit stop in and hold. Forecasters are already coming out with dry forecasts for this summer. Support September lies at 6.12 with resistance at 6.40 then 6.60. WHEAT: Let’s look at demand first. Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed 18 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 13.7 the week prior but under a year ago of 20. We are 100 m.b. behind a year ago on the year. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed a net reduction or negative sales of 213 t.t. due to cancellations of previous sales. This comes as foreign importers look to new crop sales after June 1st when better quality levels are expected. Demand remains poor. Monday’s crop progress report for our northern spring wheat states put planting at 89% complete with 55% emerged from the ground. Weather becomes very important now. Our winter wheat crop condition report showed 55% of the crop is in good to excellent condition down 4% from the week prior on 70% on April 11th. The crop is deteriorating quickly due to dry and hot weather in key producing states Texas, Colorado and Kansas. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will push near 100 degrees in these states with cooler Sunday to Monday then pushing 100 again Tuesday to Saturday. This look to give us further quality declines the next 10 days as little rain is called for. Support on July wheat lies at 3.09 then 3.03 with resistance up at 3.15 then 3.23. End.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (30512)	5/20/2005 4:13:11 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

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