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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21355)	5/20/2005 7:46:54 PM
From: blankmind	Respond to of 78670

Given that my mortgage reits have rebounded nicely - just waiting for my bank recs to come around - & given my historical record of almost always being right - i'm recommending Citrix (CTXS) - closed today @ $24.49: doing due dilig on Citrix - stock closed @ $24.49 - range is $15.02 to $26 · per 1Q05 finl’s - released 4/20/05 - Citrix appears to running on all 8 cylyinders - revs for the 1/4 hit $202 mill - year over year qtrly growth of 25% - diluted eps of $.22 vs. .05 last yr - when revs go up 25% & earnings go up 4-fold - generally means the co. has hit its economies of skill level & earnings w/ keep growing · nice stock buyback - 2.6 mill shs repurchased - @ avg of $22.74 for $58 mill - another $200 mill to go - better yet - given Citrix’s enviable cash position & close to $170 mill in annual inc - sizable buybacks can take place going forward for a long time - wow - 2.6 mill shs works out to about 40,000 shares every trading day · for 2005 - gaap earnings projected to be .94 to .99; w/revs of betwen $840-855 mill· net inc for 2001 to 2003 was .54, .52, & .74 eps/diluted - now they’re tracking to do at least $.94 · Total revs for 2001 to ’03 was $591.6 mill, 527.4 mill, & 588.7 mill - why the down yr in ’02 - i don’t understand - i don’t have the revs for ’04 - but revs this yr are supposed to be at least $840 mill - this type of profitable growth is exceptional · a little gem in the Bal Sheet - shows deferred revs of $239 mill on 3/31/05 - these are monies paid up front - that get amorized over the life of the agreement - & the number is growing - from around $100 mill in ’02 - to $165 mill in ’03 - · Citrix has products that companies want - they’re saying 160,000 orgs user Citrix - Citrix runs in 100% of the Fort 100 cos; in over 100 countries; & seems to be getting more customers by the hour · A quick glance of news stories on Google shows many companies & organizations in the process of implementing a citrix solution due to the cost savings - less man hours to maintain the network & user PCs don’t have to upgraded as often · bottom line - at @24.49/shr - provided no one comes out with a better mousetrap - i can easily see the earnings doubling along with the stock price in the next 24 months

To: Paul Senior who wrote (21355)	5/21/2005 5:41:08 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78670

Hi Paul - I added to my pharmaceutical stocks by buying a position in PFE in the $27 range. I bailed out on MRK earlier this year but never re-entered when it was lower. I also like C and JPM and have been trying to set up a long term straddle with both companies. I missed adding to C when it was around $45 and will do so if we see a check back. My thinking is that once the Fed signals that they have reached the end of the interest rate hikes, these money center banks should be able to generate good profits from the spread in rates. My special situation bank "NYB" should also benefit when rates stabilize because they borrow long and lend short. They can lock in their loan returns w/o the risk of higher long term rates. I continue to like the shippers and believe both the bulk and oil carriers will continue to do well as they service the growth in China and India. I own both DRY's and SFL in this sector. =================================================================== I have noticed in my neighborhood many remodel projects. There are four or five houses on my street that are doing large projects and just driving around many more are in process. It appears that you either are remodeling or have bought a new house or 2nd home. Any idea on a value play that will take advantage of this trend? We talked about cement companies, home builders, the box stores (Home Depot & Lowes) and even some of the specialty vendors (bathroom and fixture suppliers). Can you or anybody else think of "Value" companies that would benefit from this remodel upgrade trend. Based on the housing sales numbers and new housing starts, this trend will continue for many months (maybe even a few years) as long as interest rate remain near their all time lows. It's a global economy as when I remodeled my bathroom, my toilet was made in China, the fixtures came from Germany and my shower glass doors were made in Canada. Even my new travertine stone was shipped from Italy. The only common thread in this theme is that the shipping carriers will continue to see more activity. That is why I added dry bulk carriers to my portfolio. Maybe I missed something but you always seem to be alert to new "value" opportunities so if anything comes up on your radar that fits in with this "remodel" theme let's hear about it. EKS