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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (64027)	5/21/2005 2:58:37 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Taikun - The SuperMajors (XOM, BP, RD, CVX) and their friends (TOT, ENI, COP, etc.) are very different animals than the oil service OSX. They get bought by different people, for VERY different reasons. OSX and the oil service components is heavily a trading vehicle. Wall Street types who don't know their butt from a BTU (see Jim Cramer or 90% of the CNBC crowd) buy it as a way of exploiting oil price and geopolitical moves, then sell on the news - actually any news, like Allan Greenspan wears a green tie. Super Majors are investment vehicles, with some bond-like characteristics. OSX cycles 2 -3 times as fast as XOM and RD. Pull a 2 year comparison chart. Many of moves in OSX are barely ripples in XOM, RD, or BP. CVX moves a little. In addition to lower volitility and longer cycles, the SuperMajors pay good dividends, 2.5 to 3 times the service guys. ********** OSX Dabum, Big Dog, Kodiak Bull, Jim p and others on the Boom Boom Room board know how to trade the OSX. They have done well for the last 3 Big cycles while I have been on SI, and the do pretty well on the minor cycles too. OSX has it's own internal logic, which kinda tracks energy events but is inverse to other Wall Street opportunties. Better deals elsewhere (say semiconductors or software) may influence OSx to drop, and the money go to SOX or SMH. I have a preference for things that trend more than cycle, and I can't keep current enough on the rest of Wall Street for me to trade OSX successfully. I would enter wrong and miss the exit point by a mile. THAT DOESN'T MEAN YOU, SLAGEL, YIWU, RALPH EMMERSON, CROSSY and BACK ROW OF THE MORMON TABERNACLE CHOIR CAN"T MAKE BIG MONEY TRADING OSX. The Boom Boom Room crowd has done pretty well, based on postings and discussions they made when they traded. **********Big Integrated Oil If I were full time busy, or would be traveling, or setting up an account for some one who needs lower volitility and doesn't want to review holdings every month, I would consider these for part of my portfolio. If I decided to go very heavy on risky biotechs, or heavy day trading, I would buy some to reduce the overall risk in my portfolio. Look at what happened to these stocks in 2001, and how they moved after 9/11. RD was hit about 20%, but came back. XOM, BP, CVX were off about 12% from September 10 to the bottom - then snapped back. No dividends were missed either. SInce the stock sheld up well, you could borrow against them to buy more of other stocks during a crisis. Or if you already have some margin, this makes it less likely you will be blown out by a margin call. ********** >>>Let me stress again to everybody, that you might consider trying trading OSX on a small scale, with some input from the Boom Boom Room people. The OSX game may not work forever, but it could be a good deal for a number of years. Best regards, energyplay