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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (64038)	5/21/2005 7:37:02 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

<Well, it doesn't matter, because TeoTwawKi will be, and watching it coming at you is one joy out of many in my life :0)> Cool! One of my life's pleasures is giving joy to other people. Giving them a laugh. Playing the dare-devil, so they can gasp with vicarious thrill at possible failure and revel in schadenfreude if I fall. I am not averse to changing course rapidly if needs be, [such as selling a tranche or QCOM at $50 to avoid what looked like possible crunch time]. Nor to changing my mind if my ideas and reality don't match up, or somebody's ideas make mine look dud. Staying the course is not as good as running for cover and living to play another day. <As to freedom, I would say the trends are clear, and energy flow obvious. Your sense of history extends to merely the epilogue of the last text book, written in 1978, read backward, while riding on horse back. Speaking of industrial revolution and England, and inability of the Chinese to 'change culturally to freedom', sounds like bs and certainly is no more. I suppose before the magna whatever, you would have said some silly nonsense about the English being culturally unable to do this or that > At the risk of taking apparently opposite positions simultaneously on the same argument, I'm sure you've read enough of my rants to recall my constant refrain that ideas and cultures are massless, with no momentum, and can change on a dime. That each child born is new and couldn't care less about the irrelevant long ago world before they were born which is suspect and dodgy and something to do with crusty old geezers who had no clue what was going on. I've argued exactly that in regard to China, with people saying it's 100 years behind or some such nonsense and that it would take such and such a time to catch up. My argument is that when a child is born, they are ready to be and do anything and the past is no brake. In a single generation, they can go from the stone age to the CDMA phragmented photon cyberspace age without passing GO and they don't need the 200 pounds to do it. So, when I rant that China is culturally unattuned to freedom, I am not saying that that can't change in 24 hours and that China is stuck in the muck for the rest of eternity. It's more like a taunt. When Ai Li is a little older, you might find a perverse nature at times whereby the opposite of an imposed idea is attractive. A wish to defy a prediction of failure might motivate. There might be more than a little dare-devil lurking somewhere. Some self-determination and rising to a challenge. "No Coconut, don't climb that tree. You can't get up to that branch anyway. Those are forbidden fruit and they are probably sour anyway." "Sour grapes? Hmmm, maybe I'll just check for myself". I do think, like women, that Chinese are pretty well fully human, like real people [Yiwu the Mad being a possible exception and Bubba the Babbling doubtful too], so I'm sure they can conceive of freedom. But I suspect that they, like most people, don't really like too much freedom and it will not be easy for them to reach escape velocity. Right now, in NZ, which was once quite free, we are being sucked by our own voting choices, into a black hole of suffocatocracy, regulation, permits, acts, legislation, nanny-stating galore, 'for your own good' and more and more. Everything is now forbidden unless it is specifically approved, which requires payment of a fee [large], resource management act and all sorts of other restrictions, a permit and years of delays. I suspect Chinese are, unfortunately, human too, and they'll do the same. But, maybe they will have a real cultural revolution and go hog-wild for freedom. The real deal. Hong Kong on steroids! I doubt it. I don't think they have the wherewithal. Hu Jintao won't like it for a start and he controls the army and purse strings. The rest have been cowed. But who knows what a generation of little emperors will come up with. Probably an attempt at Empire. That's what emperors like. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (64038)	5/23/2005 1:27:14 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

TJ, Congrats, <now that I have employees in Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong, to call as 'my people', and I get to figure out what they do for how much, I am frightened, because they do a lot, very ingeniously, with thrift and diligence and imagination, for what tallies to costs of several meals or 24 hour boat charters for each month worked, and they do so with enthusiasm and loyalty.> looks like life for you just got a bunch more interesting! BTW, I saw this. Poultry gets bird flu vaccine in Qinghai chinadaily.com.cn I hope China will be more diligent than some of her neighbors have been. When Vietnam loses 53 people out of 72m to bird flu it is one thing. China would be a factor of 20... D

To: TobagoJack who wrote (64038)	5/23/2005 10:35:44 AM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

But beneath this calm, there is probably going to be a soft war, a quiet competition for power and influence across the globe. America and China will be friends one day, rivals another, cooperate in one area, compete in another. Welcome to the 21st century. This may be a backhanded compliment, but it is amazing that China is even competitive. They have to pull themselves out from a deep hole - dug by the huge impoverished population. First of all, for China to even compete, they have to do what we have already done. They have to build a university system like the one we have. This is not going to be easy, but lucky for them, the vast right wing in the United States will help. The right wing, for the most part want to dismantle our university system. But, it will still be difficult for China to build a university system equal to ours even one that is crippled by our right wing. Without a university system like ours, China can not produce anyone that can really think. They can work as hard as possible, but they need people that can articulate a future. I don't hear anything coming out of China that resembles free thinking. Where is China going? How can they get there? What does John Woo, Ang Lee, Jackie Chan, I. M. Pei, Michelle Kwan, Jerry Yang, YoYo Mah, Steven Chu, Samual Ting, TD Lee, CN Yang, YT Lee, Major General John Fugh, and Amy Tang have in common? They did it in American. Whether it is architecture, law, literature, music, ice skating, or science - it is the American component that makes it possible. Science is not really in any international language: If X+Y is greater or equal to a Nobel Prize in Physics goto end Else Continue your research in an American University.