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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (33139)5/25/2005 12:57:58 AM
From: SOROS  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Here's Prechter in June, 2002:

"If you’re a speculator, I wouldn’t chase it, unless it got to a point where you couldn’t ignore the fact that a new bull market has started, and that’s at least $70 away on the upside [from $330 today]. So I’m keeping my powder dry as far as getting completely into gold, as I think most people should. As far as how low it can go, I think it could get down to about $180 an ounce, which would be the buy of a lifetime. But we’re running out of time, and I don’t want to be too cute about it."

Sooooooo, in 2002, Prechter said that one could NOT ignore the fact that a new bull market would have started if gold hit $400! Which is it with this guy? I don't put a lot of faith in his calls.

I remain,

SOROS



To: ild who wrote (33139)5/25/2005 1:03:59 AM
From: regli  Respond to of 110194
 
I seriously doubt that Prechter predicted $450 for gold. I find his theories quite interesting but his predictions lately have simply been horrible.

Here is a quote from February 1, 2003

financialsense.com

"I think the most useful way to approach this is market analysis. That is why we watch the gold and silver markets extremely carefully. So far, we have watched gold go to a new high over the past several months. Very few people have commented that silver futures actually peaked in the summer of last year. They have not confirmed the new high in gold. Usually when you get a true inflation-generated bull market, gold and silver are moving more or less together on the upside. When we see a divergence like this, we pay attention. If those highs are taken out in the silver market and gold continues past 370, 380, 390 or perhaps to 400, then I would probably concede that the monetary world is extremely worried about the integrity of the US dollar, the monetary unit itself. So far, everything has behaved exactly as it should in the classic deflationary scenario."

In August 2003, Prechter predicted Gold to fall below $250.

goldnewsweekly.com

"Robert Prechter’s forecast that the gold price would drop below $250 (and possibly even below $200) has caused a degree of angst amongst gold bulls. Bob has made so many astonishingly accurate calls in the past, especially relating to the stock market in the 1980’s, that one should consider his views very carefully."

In 1995 this was his expectation:

spiritoftruth.org.nz

"The Elliott Wave stipulates, based on complex wave counts and Fibonacci numbers, that the US stock market is at present "at the crest" of the fifth wave which will be followed by a "Grand Supercycle degree bear market" which will carry the Dow Jones "to its expected target within the range of the previous Supercycle fourth wave, between 41 and 381 on the Dow".

And since no "Supercycle degree decline in stock prices on record has failed to produce a depression", Mr Prechter argues that the coming deflationary depression will also wreak havoc in the real estate and commodities markets.

But the bad news does not stop there. While a deflationary depression should, under normal conditions, be favourable for bonds, Mr Prechter's Elliott Wave counts suggest that bonds will not escape the coming collapse. This he attributes to massive defaults, including the one by governments.

According to Mr Prechter, "rising interest rates in a deteriorating economy will be a total mystery to most investors".

In a strongly deflationary environment, gold is not expected to perform well either. The wave principle has an ideal price target for gold of between US$ 112 and US$ 182. "


And here from April 8, 2004

elliott-today.com

"ELLIOTT today, Gold, April 8,2004:
"Gold, April 8,2004.One of the most popular opinions among analysts today is that gold has begun a new bull market.

That enthusiasm, which ELLIOTT today does not share, is a sign of a top, similar to the peak of January 2004, this time
of at least two degrees higher. The simplest wave count however supporting the case that wave (5) is over, as displays the chart of figure 1. A similar breakdown would call for a decline into the area of the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree, which in the longer term outlook in the case of gold is $320. Short term $400-390 may hold for some time."



To: ild who wrote (33139)5/25/2005 1:33:42 AM
From: loantech  Respond to of 110194
 
Personally I think the guy has made worse calls than me and I know nothing. LOL. I will go with Heinz any day of the week over Robert P. Maybe I am wrong but he does not seem to have called the stock bull of the 90's or the gold bull of the last couple of years and I bought his crash book a year or so ago. BWDIK?

I am archiving the link to check back in the future.

BTW I really appreciate all your gleaning for Trotskies posts. I have reposted your work and it is much appreciated.