To: ild who wrote (33139 ) 5/25/2005 1:03:59 AM From: regli Respond to of 110194 I seriously doubt that Prechter predicted $450 for gold. I find his theories quite interesting but his predictions lately have simply been horrible. Here is a quote from February 1, 2003financialsense.com "I think the most useful way to approach this is market analysis. That is why we watch the gold and silver markets extremely carefully. So far, we have watched gold go to a new high over the past several months. Very few people have commented that silver futures actually peaked in the summer of last year. They have not confirmed the new high in gold. Usually when you get a true inflation-generated bull market, gold and silver are moving more or less together on the upside. When we see a divergence like this, we pay attention. If those highs are taken out in the silver market and gold continues past 370, 380, 390 or perhaps to 400, then I would probably concede that the monetary world is extremely worried about the integrity of the US dollar, the monetary unit itself. So far, everything has behaved exactly as it should in the classic deflationary scenario." In August 2003, Prechter predicted Gold to fall below $250.goldnewsweekly.com "Robert Prechter’s forecast that the gold price would drop below $250 (and possibly even below $200) has caused a degree of angst amongst gold bulls. Bob has made so many astonishingly accurate calls in the past, especially relating to the stock market in the 1980’s, that one should consider his views very carefully." In 1995 this was his expectation:spiritoftruth.org.nz "The Elliott Wave stipulates, based on complex wave counts and Fibonacci numbers, that the US stock market is at present "at the crest" of the fifth wave which will be followed by a "Grand Supercycle degree bear market" which will carry the Dow Jones "to its expected target within the range of the previous Supercycle fourth wave, between 41 and 381 on the Dow". And since no "Supercycle degree decline in stock prices on record has failed to produce a depression", Mr Prechter argues that the coming deflationary depression will also wreak havoc in the real estate and commodities markets. But the bad news does not stop there. While a deflationary depression should, under normal conditions, be favourable for bonds, Mr Prechter's Elliott Wave counts suggest that bonds will not escape the coming collapse. This he attributes to massive defaults, including the one by governments. According to Mr Prechter, "rising interest rates in a deteriorating economy will be a total mystery to most investors". In a strongly deflationary environment, gold is not expected to perform well either. The wave principle has an ideal price target for gold of between US$ 112 and US$ 182. " And here from April 8, 2004elliott-today.com "ELLIOTT today, Gold, April 8,2004: "Gold, April 8,2004.One of the most popular opinions among analysts today is that gold has begun a new bull market. That enthusiasm, which ELLIOTT today does not share, is a sign of a top, similar to the peak of January 2004, this time of at least two degrees higher. The simplest wave count however supporting the case that wave (5) is over, as displays the chart of figure 1. A similar breakdown would call for a decline into the area of the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree, which in the longer term outlook in the case of gold is $320. Short term $400-390 may hold for some time."