To: ild who wrote (33234 ) 5/26/2005 11:53:42 AM From: ild Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194 Date: Thu May 26 2005 10:47 trotsky (frustrated@HOV) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it's true that their cash flows are 'consistently strong', in a way. only it's 'strongly negative', unfortunately. like all the other developers, they're loading up on vastly overpriced land inventory financed with debt ( that big mismatch between cash in the bank and outstanding debt comes from this activity ) . you'd think that companies that report 'stellar earnings' quarter after quarter would be throwing off oodles of cash, but the exact opposite is the case. so when someone says, 'but these stocks are really cheap, look at those low p/e's', then it means that someone hasn't looked too closely at what's happening. fact of the matter is, the homebuilders are BURNING CASH during one of the biggest building booms ever. what happens when the boom ends, as it must? Date: Thu May 26 2005 10:22 trotsky (homebuilder magic) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved once again, a 'strong earnings report' by a homebuilder company has the sector's stocks on fire. just for fun, let's look at a few statistics from Hovnian Enterprises: Gross Profit : 1.03B Net Income Avl to Common : 372.45M Total Cash : 93.28M Total Debt : 1.38B ( yes, that's a 'B' ) Cash Flow From Operations : -154.74M Free Cash Flow : -228.74M ( yes, those are MINUS SIGNS ) MAGIC! Date: Thu May 26 2005 09:41 trotsky (Bleuler@EU) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved " Although Europe would be thrown into disarray.." disarray?? the EU has existed for 50 years without that cumbersome document, and it will continue as it was without it. "If it is a "no" vote the Euro is, again, a currency looking for a country." this is precisely, contrary to conventional wisdom, what makes the Euro a superior currency. because the currency is so far removed from political manipulation and mutual distrust between the member states has forced them to make a treaty that is designed to avert that any member signglehandedly threatens the currency via deficit spending , the Euro has become the most unpolitical, and thus safest, currency in the world. Date: Thu May 26 2005 09:33 trotsky (@the Rand) ID#248269: going down fast again. the 6.70 target i mentioned is now less than 10 cents away...