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Strategies & Market Trends : IPO and Other Stock Plays -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: david777 who wrote (12706)	5/27/2005 12:45:11 AM
From: david777	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13331

THE MARKET: Not much of a pause and then a continuation of the move higher. Nothing spectacular, just steady. Volume modest though slightly higher on NASDAQ (flipping the action from Wednesday), great breadth as the small caps were back in action, and a bullish break higher in the last hour. MARKET SENTIMENT Bulls versus Bears: Bulls rose further the past week, up 46.2% from 44.2% two weeks back. This was the second consecutive rise after bottoming at 43.5% on the most recent decline. Bears rose to 28.6% from 28% after hitting 30.4% on the high three weeks back. That was the highest bearish level since August 2004. VIX: 12.24; -0.34. Volatility has cascaded lower the past two weeks and is now near the April lows when SP500 was in the middle of the run lower. The volatility at that time was indicative of the continued struggle. With volatility at this level there is some risk for the market with the continued modest volume rise. VXN: 15; -0.62 VXO: 11.01; -0.48 Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.75; -0.27 NASDAQ A gap higher that never looked back. Volume rose but was still below average. Just another typical move in this advance. Stats: +21.12 points (+1.03%) to close at 2071.24 Volume: 1.645B (+6.41%). Volume edged up. Nothing strong, but a continuation of the good price/volume action even though at low overall volume levels showing continued modest accumulation. Up Volume: 1.309B (+780M) Down Volume: 301M (-657M) A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.39 to 1. Solid breadth on the advance, making up for some of the volume deficiency. Previous Session: Decliners led 1.9 to 1 New Highs: 85 (+26) New Lows: 45 (-17) The Chart: The Chart: investmenthouse.com^ixq.html NASDAQ paused at 2050 and volume kicked higher as it continued the move toward next resistance at 2100. That is solid resistance, but NASDAQ has been lining them up and knocking them down on this move. Bullish intraday action continues as well with a gap, an intraday rest, and then a rally in the last hours. Volume continues its positive action but it is still quite low, and we hate low volume moves as what goes up on low volume usually goes down. The breadth and the positive price/volume action keeps things on a positive keel. NASDAQ 100 posted a 1% gain, matching NASDAQ overall. As the breadth indicated, a nice advance across the techs. 1550 is key resistance just 11 points higher. SOX was out in front again with a 1.9% lead, clearing near resistance at 430 and heading for next at 440. Seems chip resistance comes in tens with the top of the range at 450. That is the key resistance that will either allow SOX to move to higher high or knock it back down. That is a long way away for now but with NASDAQ approaching key resistance simultaneously, that will be the point to watch. SP500/NYSE Breaking higher from the lateral consolidation, but unable to muster any volume as it did. Stats: +7.61 points (+0.64%) to close at 1197.62 NYSE Volume: 1.285B (-1.98%). Volume was unable to rally with the index as it retook the April high at 1192. Price/volume action has taken a turn for the worse the past two sessions as it was higher on the Wednesday selling and lower on the Thursday gain. At these levels, however, it is not enough to seriously threaten the move. More important would be some good volume on the move higher. Up Volume: 1.233B (+594M) Down Volume: 330M (-753M) A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.35 to 1. Excellent breadth as the small caps led the NYSE indices higher. Volume was not that great but breadth was a silver lining as it made the move back over the high. Previous Session: Decliners led 2.08 to 1 New Highs: 95 (+42) New Lows: 23 (-12) The Chart: investmenthouse.com^spx.html SP500 moved to a new closing high for this move as it tried to solidify its move above the April high at 1192. It did not set the move in stone as volume remained light once more and even fell on the session, but it is establishing a beachhead above that level with the lateral move the past week (well, kind of lateral). It is holding over that key level, making the higher high but also some resistance at the next level, 1200. Basically SP500 has resistance all the way up to 1225 and it will try the move in a series of steps. It is trying to start the next step higher right now but needs a bit more trade to kick it off as with the last leg. Ahead of the long weekend it is not likely to get it. The small caps rallied right back from the Wednesday drubbing, holding near support at the 10 day EMA (317.63) and posting a new closing high since April. It is still not over the April high (324.64), however, as the small caps had been relegated to second class status on this move after giving up the leadership mantel early this year. DJ30 Very similar to the small caps, DJ30 is trying to break higher from the lateral consolidation of the past week and move above the April high (10,557) for a higher high. Volume remains low but it is building for a break higher with this pattern. Stats: +79.8 points (+0.76%) to close at 10537.60 Volume: 194 million shares Thursday versus 188 million shares Wednesday. The chart: investmenthouse.com^dji.html