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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (33424)	5/28/2005 1:43:05 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Foreclosures on my Mind globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mish

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (33424)	5/28/2005 9:13:53 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<It is amazing how many speeches the FED has given recently referencing the housing bubble.> Yet, what do they do in the real, non Ministry of Truth Newspeak orwelltoday.com world: six coupon passes starting with the day of the Kohn speech. FCBs come in and purchase $21 billion in agency issues, starting with the Kohn speech. Despite two more rate hikes since early April, a lid has been put on commonly used ARM indexes such as the Libor () and 1 year CMT. Watch their actions, not their words. That's always been the problem with this Fed, they refuse to dole out discipline despite now supposedly finding late in the day religion about the Bubbles they create. It's the opposite of Teddy Roosevelt's "Speak softly and carry a big stick". Alan Greenspan is "Speak unintelligibly and carry a small stick". () One year Libor: March, 2005 3.84 April, 2005 3.71 May, 2005: set at month's end, would appear to be about 3.78 libor-loans.com The Fed funds market is now looking for two pauses in the next four meetings. trendmacro.com From the way I look at COTs on the Eurodollar, there may be three pauses. The commercials still have large long bets on the ED, but are basically flat everything else. So the masterplan appears to be to restore the yield curve slope IMO. That will do nothing to stop the egregious ARMs, HELOC and IO lending practices. Here's the knock your socks off chart of the year: idorfman.com

To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (33424)	5/28/2005 11:41:43 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I had meetings last week with two title company managers. One is in charge of a San Diego operation and the other a Southern Cal regional manager. Here are the highlights in no particular order: 1. 2003 was undoubtedly the best year for the industry with refi mania. 2004 was slower but good. 2005 started off slow but is now pretty good again, though still slower than 2004. 2. Everyone in the business is making tons of money. e.g. an escrow officer now regularly makes $10k a month, around $5K as salary and $5K as percentage from escrows. 3. Purchase escrow cancellations are normal at between 10-20%. Refi escrow cancellations depend on rate fluctuations. 4. Many of the real estate "investors" are people in the business themselves, agents, loan brokers, etc. 5. Negligible amount of escrow cancellations due to qualifications. Seems like anyone who wants a loan gets one. 6. Title business getting outsourced also. They know of at least one competitor already in India. A PR (preliminary title report) may cost $100 here is only $25 in India. 7. No signs of pressure right now. No TSG business. (TSGs are trustee's sale guarantees. Like a PR, it tells the foreclosing lender what is against the property and the borrower. Sequentially, it follows a default and before the lender files the notice of default.) I am trying to digest what I gathered and draw some conclusions later.