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To: amoezzi who wrote (41346)5/28/2005 11:44:48 AM
From: SchnullieRespond to of 118717
 
I assume you meant to direct this to Dale. There was some discussion several months ago regarding NFI's ability to maintain dividends in a down market. The conclusion was that they could but the calcs were convoluted. I'll leave to Dale.

fwiw, my own take on the situation is that, at a minimum, anything to do with RE will get taken out to the shed and shot (assuming a bubble burst). The stock will get trashed.

If you're truly only interested in quarterly cash takeouts, I am skeptical of how the calcs above incorporate the phenomenon of thousands of mortgage holders leaving their keys on the shelf and driving away. I do believe this phenomenon will be largely confined to the obvious bubble areas so NFI's performance may depend largely on their geographic exposure.

jmo....but I've never been wrong......except for that one time in March 2000.....and then there was that time......



To: amoezzi who wrote (41346)5/28/2005 12:12:38 PM
From: Dale BakerRead Replies (2) | Respond to of 118717
 
I have no doubt that the quarterly dividend is very safe for a couple of years thanks to how NFI has structured the portfolio they retain.

But the common stock price could get knocked around badly in the worst case.

Your alternative is to buy the NFI preferred stock (NFI.PR.C on ETrade or NFI-PC on Yahoo) and get a 10.6% yield in a security with a guaranteed par price of $25. Current price is 25.38 and it's not callable until 2009.