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Technology Stocks : 3G Wireless: Coming Soon or Here Now? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quartersawyer who wrote (449)	5/29/2005 5:39:23 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 666

3G Glasses Half Empty ... Tabloid writer Tony Dennis: ... There's no "really" there except that Tony's still a really bad journalist. To be sure, his glass is always half empty ... but even though he throws stones, to his credit he picks up on all the happenings to throw stones at. He's a pretty observant guy. << It's thoroughly predictable that half of the journalists and analysts read negatives into the less than fantastically explosive progress. >> It is. That won't change. << Interesting that the November piece was more accurate. You wrote that, yes? >> Yes. While I was I listening to the whole set of Vodafone presentations last November 10 when they did the launch ... via.vodafone.com I thought they were pretty darned good. Low hype, maybe even no hype. I really think (still do) that was 'Over the Hump Day' for UMTS (WCDMA). prior to that we simply had one global early adopter. Commercially launching 3G networks in 13 countries with a reasonable menu of acceptable handsets from a variety of manufacturers and some interesting new content and services was a big event in my mind. It was a real LAUNCH, in every sense of the word. They didn't promise overnight success. It's an evolution not a revolution from a services and capabilities perspective, and they understand that, perhaps better than most. Not sure why I never posted it back then, TBH. I was probably looking for a little more data to add and then got distracted. Russell Beattie did a pretty good job of jotting down some first impressions in his blog while he was digesting what I was trying to digest back then: russellbeattie.com << the extraterrestrial penchant for DO: "3G 1xEV-DO subscribers reached 8.3 billion in September 2004". Wait til they get a load of DOrA! >> DOrA (and HSPA) kick it up a notch from a packet access perspective ... but whole product including segmented and tailored services and content at justifiable prices will be key to adoption. As a transmission capability for consumers using handsets, which just now are becoming available outside Korea, even DOr0 is ahead of the whole product curve. Verizon's VeraCast might attract 250,000 subscribers this year. I won't be one. It simply doesn't appeal to me even though it's modestly priced. I'm wondering what PCS has in store. At this juncture I would not even hazard a guess as what percentage of CDMA handsets that will deliver outside of the more mature markets of Korea and Japan next year will be DO enabled. I couldn't even really take a stab at the US. The 3G hockey stick is ahead of us. I've always pegged Q4 2007 as the kick-point. The more optimistic might think a year earlier but wishing it to happen faster isn't going to make it happen faster, but just think about the capabilities built into handsets delivering H2 2005 (transmission technology somewhat aside) and compare that to the capabilities available 3 years ago. It's really a pretty dramatic change. Lurking in the background are these OMA service enablers that are really starting to jell -- standardized uniform and interoperable capabilities that will drive an inevitable mass market. Best, - Eric -