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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (163501)	6/3/2005 1:08:25 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 281500

Where does this guy live Nadine, at Hotel Ferdows? He is as confused as any and his argument has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. Here are some samples: First there's an obvious panic on the side of ALL the governments of Iraq's neighbours from the nature of the current Iraqi government. It's technically a She'at-Kurdish government and that is way too unacceptable for all of our neighbours who would like to see it look inefficient and if possible then topple it. So let me get this straight, he is insinuating that the ALL Iraqi neighbours want to topple this government. A government that by the way he himself considers corrupt and wants to get rid of. So what is the problem then? Secondly, why would ALL neighbouring countries be in state of panic? Have you even looked to see who the Iraqi government is and why neighbouring countries be concerned? Let's go over this: Iraq's neighbours: (1) IRAN: Iran has the longest border with Iraq and is the most important neighbour. Now let's look at the components of Iraqi government: President, he is a Kurd and speaks fluent Persian and was an ally of Iran. He had a recent visit to Iran in which he said Iraqis owe a great debt to Iran because Iran stood by them during the dark days of Saddam. Prime Minister: He is from the Dawa party with close ties to Iran. Foreign Minister: A Kurd with same views as the President Supreme Religious Leader: Sistani, is an Iranian who was born and raised in Iran. First Assistant to Sistani: Dr. Shahrestani, also an Iranian The rest of the Iraqi government: Either from SCIRI (Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq with bases in Iran during Saddam era) or Dawa Party (also with close links to Iran) or Kurd (who are grateful for the help they got in the past and have very close cultural ties to Iran). The only fly in the ointment is Sadr, but he is very anti-US so Iran is not afraid of him. CONCLUSION: IRAN HAS NO REASON TO DESTABILIZE IRAQ AND HAS EVERY REASON TO HELP ITS GOVERNMENT. (2) TURKEY: Turkey is mostly concerned about its own Kurdish population. The key for Turkey is not to see an independent Kurdish state next door. Given that 97% of Kurds voted they wish not to be part of Iraq, the present government with its Kurdish leadership is the only thing that is holding them part of Iraq and is preventing Turkey from a quagmire that will most certainly prevent its membership in EU. Furthermore, Turkey is part of NATO and has no desire to piss US off. CONCLUSION: TURKEY HAS NO REASON TO DESTABILIZE IRAQ AND EVERY REASON TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT. (3) SYRIA: The ruling party in Syria, for those who do not know, is Ba'ath Party. Nonetheless Syria and Iraq have hated each other for the longest time and each competed for the recognition of being the "True" Ba'ath Party (something to keep in mind the next time you think ideological similarity always leads to political alliance). The ruling family in Syria is an obscure sect of Shia who managed to get in power because Sadr (of Lebanon and a relative of the Sadrs of Iraq) gave them religious recognition. So (a) Syria was damn happy to see Saddam gone and (b) Syria does not have a problem with a Shia government in Iraq, but (c) Syria is unhappy about US presence in Iraq. CONCLUSION: SYRIA IS A MIXED CASE. ON ONE HAND THEY ARE HAPPY WITH MANY EVENTS IN IRAQ, ON THE OTHER HAND THEY DON'T LIKE US SO CLOSE TO THEM. IN THE BEGINNING THEY HIGHLY COOPERATED WITH US BUT SINCE THEY WERE NOT REWARDED FOR IT THEY HAVE SINCE COOLED DOWN. (4) JORDAN: Jordan is the most pro-US and even pro-Israel Arab regime. CONCLUSION: JORDAN WOULD NOT MESS WITH IRAQ AND PISS OFF US. (5) SAUDI: Saudis are shitless scared of seeing another Shia regime in Iraq. This is in part because they want to maintain some form of "leadership" or "Guardianship" of Islam. And in part this is because their oil fields are in Shia dominated regions whose population they have kept in subhuman conditions. But Saudi has close relationships with Bush & Co (and US in general). So they cannot overtly go against US interests. CONCLUSION: SAUDIS ARE PROBABLY ACTIVE IN DESTABILIZING IRAQ, BUT THEY CAN'T BE DOING SO OVERTLY AND THUS THEIR INFLUENCE IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON THE SUPPORT OF DISGRUNTLED IRAQIS. (6) KUWAIT: Kuwait is just happy to see a government in Iraq that will not claim it as itsown land (as Kuwait or a good chunk of it anyway rightfully belongs to Iraq). In any event they are in no position to oppose US or try to sway currents in one direction or another. CONCLUSION: KUWAIT IS NOT PART OF THE PICTURE. FINAL CONCLUSION: This guy is full of it when he blames the situation on "panic on the side of ALL the governments of Iraq's neighbours". Let's look at other aspects of his claim: "The problem is that till now Sunnis have not found their representatives, as they don't have a Marji'ya like the She'at and they weren't oppressed just because they were Sunnis and therefore they didn't have such a tie to bring them together as one mass" First of all, Marji'ya is a religious position akin to Cardinal Bishop in Christianity. It matters nothing if you are not a religious person. Now if his previous claims are correct that most Iraqis don't care about political Islam and that the Islamists are from outside (or as I have heard some claim that most Iraqis are secular) then why they hell does Marji'ya matter? It only matters if you fallow what your Bishop tells you, but if care then by definition you are not a secular person. Ultimately, Shias and Kurds make up 80+% of Iraq's population. In any form of democracy they will be running the country. So to complain about the government being so is absurd. I could go on but I think this is enough and I don't have much time anyway. ST