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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (31680)	6/7/2005 5:27:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

thanks

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (31680)	6/8/2005 12:08:31 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Hi, this is Tim Hannagan and it is Tuesday, June 7th and the markets are closed- CORN: Note, Friday, June 10th at 7:30 a.m. central time the USDA will release its monthly crop report with ending stocks changes and world production numbers. It should be a non-event but viewed as slightly friendly for all grains. They also will have all wheat production totals. Monday saw our usual flurry of reports. First, was our weekly export inspection report showing 31.1 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export unchanged from the week prior but under a year ago of 40 m.b. It is a neutral demand indicator. Monday's crop condition report showed 64% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, up from 62 last week and under a year ago of 68%. Most had expected a 1 or 2% decline. Key producing states read like this: Illinois is 55% versus 60% the week prior. Missouri 44% versus 47. Nebraska 70 versus 71. Winners were Indiana 62% versus 58. Wisconsin 75 versus 65 and Iowa 62 versus 58. these crop ratings give only light direction to the market as we are in the first 10% of our growing season. Once we are at key yield development time if weather is bad we can put 2, 3 or more big days in a row as the window of opportunity to for crop size and or yield becomes very short but now we can be drier than normal and if rains return in July we can have a huge crop. Yet one good rain will make the crop as well. So, expect big Monday or daily rallies off forecasts to see traders take profits. Well, hats of to wxrisk.com who told us last Wednesday to Friday that weekend rains would fail in our driest midwest states. Monday gave us 6 to 8 cent gains before profit taking. Today's action was two sided as traders sort out all the forecasts into Sunday. Wxrisk.com sees too little rain to benefit crops into Sunday. Next chance for any appreciable rain is next week after Wednesday. Support July is 217 then 2.14 with resistance at 2.27. Speculators continue to hold over 60 thousand short futures and option. A trade through upside resistance will have them run for cover pushing July to the 2.40 area. Remember weather is 95% of our pricing influence. BEAN: Monday's first report was our weekly export inspection report showing 4.4 m.b. were inspected for near term export down from 9.9 the week prior but well over a year ago of 1 m.b. It is neutral to slightly friendly for demand. Monday's first crop condition report of the year showed 62% of our crop in G-E condition versus 65 a year ago. Key producers read like this: Illinois 55%, Indiana 59, Missouri 42, Ohio 62, Iowa 66, Nebraska 69. 92% is now planted with 70% emerged from the ground. Key yield time comes in August. Beans exploded for 18 cents on Monday's open before profit taking came in on forecasts for generally drier than normal weather in our central and eastern midwest bean belt states. There is a lot of long money with profits on this last leg up since the 6.40 area basis July and September. Any call for rain and September could break through our 6.78 support and push to 6.66 quickly as stops are building under 6.78. If that break accurse be a buyer as one rain will not change the dry psychology we have been building since March 1st. Add to longs with buy stops over 6.92 WHEAT: Monday's first report was our weekly export inspections coming in at 16.7 m.b. down from 20.7 the week prior, equal our four week average but under a year ago of 20.3. It is a negative near term demand signal as importers await new harvested winter wheat. Monday's crop condition report for winter wheat came in at 48% G-E condition unchanged on the week. Key producer Kansas came in at 37% versus 41 and Colorado 43 versus 47%. Harvest is beginning in our far southwestern like Texas, so quality takes a back seat to harvest pressure and demand. Spring wheat conditions were great at 78% G-E condition versus 77 the week prior and 66 a year ago. Wheat has followed my thinking and that being corn and bean rallies will pull it up but expect sellers as harvest pressure and weak demand and no spring wheat problems means we need to move lower on price to find buyers. Monday's early rally gave way to sellers with light follow through selling today. Wheat's next chance for strength comes as shorts take profits ahead of Friday's USDA crop report which should show a cut in winter wheat production due to poor weather. July has support at 3.14 and resistance at 3.27. End>