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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (32913)	6/8/2005 4:16:51 PM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Now that's odd. I could swear the value of my home has increased 100 percent SEVERAL times in the years I've owned it. Where did you get the impression that the latest runup in prices (occurring roughly over the past 5-7 years) has never occurred before? In fact, the value of my father's house has increased 100 percent MANY times in the years he's owned it (since about 1951). And calm down, the pendulum might swing back for a while. No need to push the panic button. <<Population of this country has been increasing for decades, many times at higher rates, without creating 100% increases in housing prices>>

To: Mike Johnston who wrote (32913)	6/8/2005 9:00:36 PM
From: GraceZ	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

About five or six years ago I was working in the darkroom listening to a local public radio show. That day's subject was about how RE in Baltimore was finally coming back after a long downward spiral. The host had on a few city officials and boosters who were talking up how much better neighborhoods were doing and how after years of declining population people were starting to see the city as a place to move back into to live. At the time, I owned three rentals in the city, but lived outside. For the previous five or six years when I did my net worth statement, I'd write down the value of the city properties while increasing the value of the county property slightly, so it was interesting to hear the city officials say things were coming back because I was feeling like a bagholder even though all my properties were rented and cashflow positive. They talked about the various government programs to get first time buyers over the hurdle of buying a house, including down payment grants, loans and a program to teach basic financial planning as well as busing prospective buyers around town to see the different neighborhoods. It all sounded up beat and wonderful until they opened the phones. From the very first caller to the last, each person called in to complain about the value of their RE and how it hadn't done anything but go down and how they felt trapped in their houses. They also contested the idea that these various neighborhoods that the city boosters were touting were livable, all from people who claimed to be living in them. I found the second half of the show to be pretty funny because what was suppose to be about the latest renaissance turned out to be a bitching session, with people complaining that their local government hadn't done anything to help them keep up their property values. The real irony is that just about a month ago, the same host had a show where the subject was also about RE in the city, but this time it was about how first time buyers were now getting priced out of the market and what was the city and the Federal government doing to help correct this problem. Several people on the show blamed the current Federal administration. Open the phones and again, lots of complaints about the government, mostly that ordinary middle class and working class people couldn't buy homes and what was the government doing to help? No one seemed to remember that just five years earlier they complained they couldn't sell them at any price. Housing will be affordable again but I can promise you that most won't want it when it is. Prices change, but human nature remains fairly predictable.