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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (64756)	6/16/2005 8:20:00 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, If we look to Japan for signs of what happens after the housing boom, I do not see the flight to gold. Japan's debt/GDP is worse than the US, and only ameliorated by a high national savings rate (which permits wasteful gov't spending and keeps the tax rate low which spurs a high savings rate-we get the picture) Japan by all rights should have been able to really drive gold but gold die make its big move from 255 in March 2001 at the worst point of their bottom, when the Nikkei hit 7000 in 2002. If Japan could drive gold 255-398 Apr 01-Nov 03, then I would expect big things when the globe's senior currency, the USD, falls out of bed. But now is too early as housing continues to rocket, and real estate has become the in-vogue storage of value. I wish I had the guts to play them. If I were long housing back in 2003 when I bought some puts that will expire soon I would be a little cheerier. We need a rout in housing to make profits on our Puts, but then again we're part of the 'to many bears to fail' problem. We need same rout to drive gold. Instead we're getting a hosing. D