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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (64821)	6/9/2005 10:15:52 PM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

>>the energy per GDP has been dropping around the world<< But GDP has been rising, and the energy use per capita has been rising. It's an unsustainable trend, unless we find a cheap unlimited source of energy like fusion.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (64821)	6/10/2005 8:59:04 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Energy/GDP is decreasing. I don't have the figures, but I believe that the absolute value of the numerator has not gone up very fast in the US. Partly because every person of drivable age already had the license to use 30 gallons of gas per month. (Actually one gets that license just by being born in the country). And that has not changed very much in the last 30-40 years in the developed world. Could it be because the denominator has become larger by inclusion of services? Lots of these services were previously not included in the GDP. Women's work, childcare, care of the elderly were included in the intra-family category and not showing up in the count of exchangable goods. On the other hand, billions of people have still not earned the right to spend 30 gallons of gas per month. When they do, the numerator will start going up. Poor mexicans can cross the US border and earn the right to 30 gallons of gas for the rest of their lives and their children by just crossing over the border. The Chinese have to pay $40,000 to pay the smugglers (that's why they work in Chinatowns and forgo their 30 gallons a month gas allowance for a generation). Most others only need a valid passport on and an airline ticket,and they earn the right to 30 gallons per month. Obviously that energy barrier (the price of gas needed for one seat on an aircraft) is big enough that 80-90 percent of illegal immigrants are from Mexico. Energy is the steroid of the developed world economies. Do developed countries allow or control the prices of resources to be just above the price of the world's masses? Or the price of energy rises to the level that it can only be affordable to a small percentage who are already ahead. The game seems to favor the countries in the lead, by design or by chance. On the other hand, Maurice, you may be right. In the cyber world of the future, the barrier to enter the developed world economies, or the right to deal with the haves, which used to be earned by immigration, is now much lower. Just 1/25th based on energy calculations alone. And even lower in terms of socioeconmic costs (separation from familiar people and places). Maybe 1/200th. -Arun >But apart from that, the energy per GDP has been dropping around the world. In 1973, oil was a big deal in the USA economy. Now it has dwindled to an also-ran. With a GDP per capita of US$40,000, the cost of energy isn't a big chunk of that.>