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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (236655)	6/10/2005 9:30:26 AM
From: Taro	Respond to of 1571043

It hasn't been done because so far none of the nations having nukes ready to go have been keen on letting the bad guys get their hands on them at any price. With rogue nations like PRK (and possibly Iran) joining the club, this may change. In particular when the rest of the world refuses to help them out feeding their population while the Kims invest all own funds available in the production of nukes and other fireworks. Taro

To: Road Walker who wrote (236655)	6/10/2005 9:37:43 AM
From: Taro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571043

I think the odds of it getting it done in a single attempt are about 1 in 50 pretty much the same as the à priori odds for the bad guys pulling off the 9/11. Assuming you have some hang of statistics, the odds still are 1:50, that a US city is gone on first attempt. The Twin Towers both went on second attempt... Imagine a revolver with 50 slots and one loaded only: how would you feel like playing Russian roulette with that gadget? Swell, I guess... Taro

To: Road Walker who wrote (236655)	6/10/2005 4:35:35 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571043

re: I already said enough, and believe me, with practically unlimited funds having an interest in dealing a nuke blow to one of our cities, it could be done. I think the odds of it getting it done in a single attempt are about 1 in 50. So we catch the first 49 guys. Who's going to expend the money and effort and risk life in jail or the death penalty to try the 50th time? John, there is nothing you can say to alleviate their concern. The whole arms raise with the Soviets was mostly due to the paranoia of certain Americans that was well fed by certain American leaders. They are absolutely convinced that 6-8 nukes are headed our way........and in their fear, they struck out against Iraq hoping to stop the nukes in their tracks. And all they did was make the terrorists want to nuke us more. It would be funny if we didn't have to share the country with them. ted

To: Road Walker who wrote (236655)	6/10/2005 9:52:28 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1571043

I think the odds of the nuke getting through are much higher than 1 in 50. If a well backed and planned effort gets under way without the US having any intel about it the chance could be better than 50/50. (Obviously less well backed or planned, and less well concealed plots have less chance of success) The US has large a porous borders, and as poor as North Korea is they could put millions, or even billions in to the attempt to get a nuke in. Once they get the nuke away from North Korea they could smuggle it in using many of the methods drug smugglers use. Of course the nuke can't be cut up in to little pieces and still function, but drug smuggles sometimes move tons in one shipment, and the drugs are not always well concealed. The nuke might be moved inside a shipping container. Yes we are getting radiation scanners at our ports but we don't have enough of them yet, they are not perfect, and more importantly the cargo is only scanned as it leaves the port. The nuke could be set off right away, in the port before anyone has time to scan it. Or you could smuggle it in to Canada or Mexico and then move it across out large, poorly monitored borders. And if it were so easy, why hasn't it been done? Or even attempted? 1 - Lack of motive, is a possibility. North Korea really wouldn't gain by having a small nuke go off in an American city. 2 - Risk of retaliation. The US might find out who did it, or might think it found out, and retaliate massively against the real or perceived perp. Even if there is no specific retaliation the US might become more aggressive, even to the point of acting somewhat crazy, and very dangerous. Kim Jung Il might not be the most reasonable person but he isn't totally crazy or a complete fool. Edit - And all of the above assumes a small nuke. If North Korea's are primitive and overly large the chance of smuggling them in goes down, perhaps a lot. Still it would probably be better than 1 in 50 unless we have good intel about the effort. Tim