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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.K. who wrote (799)	6/10/2005 4:59:28 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 4814

That Gush..... ya gotta watch that guy !!! LOL! T

To: J.K. who wrote (799)	6/13/2005 9:34:14 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 4814

A pretty good read on oil.... OPEC is meeting on Wednesday, but really this is a non-event. Dunno what the talkingheads might make of it, but nothing would surprise me there. =================================== biz.yahoo.com AP OPEC's Ability to Influence Prices Monday June 13, 8:39 pm ET By William J. Kole, Associated Press Writer OPEC's Ability to Influence Prices on the Line Ahead of Key Meeting on Output VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- OPEC's credibility as a force with enough pull to bring down stubbornly high oil prices was on the line Tuesday as oil ministers began arriving ahead of a key meeting in Vienna this week. ADVERTISEMENT The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries -- beset by prices hovering around US$53 a barrel -- is expected to raise its daily output ceiling by 500,000 barrels to an official quota of 28 million barrels per day when it meets on Wednesday. But key officials and industry analysts can't help but wonder: What's the point? OPEC, which churns out 40 percent of the world's daily crude production, is already pumping roughly 30 million barrels a day, meaning the move would be largely symbolic and unlikely to drive down prices that are bedeviling motorists at the gas pumps and putting the brakes on the global economy. "No matter what the decision -- half a million (barrels), one million or two million a day -- it will have no physical impact on OPEC's output level. It will be just playing with numbers," Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said Monday. OPEC essentially has two options: Keep its current production ceiling at 27.5 million barrels a day, or increase it by an amount that will cool oil prices, said Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamili, the United Arab Emirates' oil minister. The law of supply and demand isn't the main factor driving up prices, al-Hamili contends, pointing to speculation in the future market, instability in some producing countries and concerns in world markets over insufficient production capacity. "Market fundamentals clearly indicate without any doubt that supply in the world markets is more than demand," he said. Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said Monday he would support any plan by OPEC to raise its official output ceiling, and said he saw support among other cartel members to do so. But others were wondering whether the 11-nation cartel has the clout to bring prices back beneath the psychologically important threshold of US$50 per barrel. "If you look at spare capacities, it implies that OPEC does not have much room to maneuver," Orrin Middleton, an analyst with Barclays Capital in London, said Monday. "I don't think they have much up their sleeve to influence prices at this point." Although lower prices are in OPEC's interest, "the group's power over oil prices is diminished because of the scarcity of excess capacity," said Robert Plexman, an analyst with Canada-based CIBC World Markets Corp. OPEC contends prices benefit it most when they're in the US$40 to US$50 range. The group obviously has no interest in seeing prices plummet, but also wants to keep buyers from turning to producers outside the cartel. In a sign that OPEC might be losing its relevance, Indonesia signaled Monday it will decide in the next two years whether it will remain a member. "In one or two more years, we will decide if we leave or stay," said Rachmat Sudibjo, an adviser to the country's oil minister. He said the nation was considering downgrading its status to that of an observer -- a move which would be unprecedented in OPEC's 45-year history. OPEC President Sheik Ahmad Fahad al-Ahmad al-Sabah said last week that the cartel would increase the ceiling by 500,000 barrels per day to show to consumers that it's doing its best to cool prices. Saudi Arabia is the only known country in the group with the ability to add barrels to daily production. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said recently that even if the group raises its production ceiling, it may not make much sense to actually add oil to the market. "Any decision by OPEC to increase oil production at this week's meeting in Vienna can't be implemented," said Zanganeh, the Iranian oil minister. "This will be simply a positive or negative gesture .... OPEC members won't reduce their production." In its latest report issued Friday, the International Energy Agency left its estimate for 2005 world oil demand unchanged at 84.3 million barrels a day, although it raised its growth estimate for the fourth quarter by 230,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day. It said OPEC's output fell by 55,000 barrels a day in May to 29.3 million barrels. Oil prices have been rising for 2 1/2 years and have more than doubled since then. Jochen Hitzfeld, an economist with Germany's HVB Group, expects Brent crude prices to average US$51 a barrel this year and US$56 next year. "Prices will remain high in 2005 and will continue to rise in 2006," he said. OPEC: www.opec.org