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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grainne who wrote (105897)	6/11/2005 11:52:44 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 108807

This is simply wishful thinking. There are no data showing Tamiflu is effective under H5N1 pandemic conditions. The best data (tiger zoo in Thailand) indicated it did virtually nothing (in all likelihood all infected tigers died even though they were given double the recommended prophylactic dose). The models use unrealistically low case fatality rates (the US draft plan uses 0.2-0.3%) based on TB rates and mild pandemics like 1957 or 1968). These are "feel good" articles to make the public thing things are not so bad and make administrators think they are doing something useful).

To: Grainne who wrote (105897)	6/12/2005 10:20:54 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 108807

Here's more on H5N1 evolving via recombination news.google.com

To: Grainne who wrote (105897)	6/13/2005 9:18:15 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 108807

Plot thickening as sequence of H5N1 in Qinghai is similar to H5N1 in southeastern China news.google.com

To: Grainne who wrote (105897)	6/14/2005 8:11:44 AM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 108807

Bird flu detected in New York news.google.com