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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chas. who wrote (33128)	6/11/2005 9:19:23 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 306849

Speculators are plenty in every asset class and every generation. I know very few speculators that remain wealthy as their decision are driven by impulses justified by irrational logic and ignoring or knowing the facts - therefore the name – speculators. As to phenomena we are witnessing now in RE is all related to the “innovative” new mortgages and HELOC with a US government sponsored policy of “fulfillment of the American Dream” which is ruining any aspect of financial integrity of our own people. The new bankruptcy laws will be proven to be a rude awakening for to many and undermine the fabric and hegemony of our society. Desperate people who will loose their life savings invested in dwellings which no one needs with the lenders chasing them relentlessly will not be neither productive or law obeying citizen – could I refer to one of the “Back to the Future” movies where the bad guy stole the book with all the baseball results?

To: Chas. who wrote (33128)	6/11/2005 9:49:05 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Speculators are plenty in every asset class and every generation. I know very few speculators that remain wealthy as in most cases their decision are driven by impulses justified by irrational logic and ignoring or not knowing the facts or financial fundamentals - therefore the name – speculators. As to the phenomena we are witnessing now in RE it is not much different than Y2K stock market bubble - related to irrational justification. It is all related to the “innovative” new mortgages - IOL and HELOC loans, (or better said - the free money given to borrowers to own a home were the means of owning it are ignored, on speculation the home price will continually rise) with an US government sponsored policy of “fulfillment of the American Dream” which in the end will be ruining any aspect of financial integrity of our own people. The new bankruptcy laws will be proven to be a rude awakening for to many and undermine the fabric and hegemony of our society. Desperate people who will loose their life savings invested in dwellings which no one needs, with the lenders chasing them relentlessly, will not be neither productive or law obeying citizen. The RE market capitalization is several times bigger than the stock market and the prevailing leverage much much more higher therefore the big danger whereby a crash in RE will be amplified several times over in it's consequences relative to the stock market crash – could I refer to one of the “Back to the Future” movies where the bad guy stole the book with all the baseball results? That is why IMHO many at the FED are sounding the alarm (as they do not mention the elusive “plateau” in RE prices as before the 1929 stock market crash) – but it is to late IMHO to put the destructive genie back into it’s bottle.