Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (33146)	6/11/2005 1:44:16 PM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

but to compare a market (real estate) to a nasdaq (or stock market) is idiotic, there are many variables at the local level that are VERY different from the nasdaq or any equities market... Agreed but I would compare metro California markets or the Florida new construction high end condos to NASDAQ but that doe s not mean that THE ENTIRE REAL ESTATE MARKET IS READY TO IMPLODE that has been my point... That is my point too. Avoid Florida, California, Vegas and metro NE. Played out and values discounted for perfection while incredible opportunities in other places unless we do go into a depression<g> the real estate market(S) will continue and the implosion of one will not mean the domino effect the doomsayers are predicting.... Agreed. The whole banking system collapsed in the early 1990's and all commercial RE values plummeted 60-70% and we survived. exactly... so instead of the destruction of value in real estate.... the destruction will be in YOUR ALL MIGHTY CURRENCY... i.e. inflation (masked by how the government wants to measure it) will be the murderer of the US Dollar.... Exactly why flyover country could be the benefactor this next cycle with Jim Rogers being one the only other people who talk about this possibility. IN CONCEPT THE GOLD BUGS WERE RIGHT ALL ALONG -gg i.e. the fiat currency (the us dollar and any other currency for that matter, where the politicians have been able to milk forever) is getting destroyed.... the problem has been that amazingly most people are actually NOT THAT DUMB... because they learned that the gold market could be manipulated and therefore they stayed away from it... INSTEAD we, the people.... have chosen real estate to be our new REAL currency by which things are measured... and no doubt the politicians will soon learn that property taxes will be the way to MILK the public... Agree in part except we the people are dumb chasing what is the hot trend of the moment and are clueless about everything else. All speculation and flipping in frothy markets and not much desire to own RE in the inexpensive areas of the country. We the people are loading up with ARM's when we can get 30 year fixed at 45 year lows. This doesn't sound like many folks are using it as a hedge against debasing the currency. Just amazing. As for gold the public doesn't trust anything to do with the financial markets anymore and many were burned investing in junior minors the past six months. I'm 100% sure most newly minted experts speculating in RE will get to share that experience. Good stuff Zebra. You can see where the contrarian is going with all this.

To: X Y Zebra who wrote (33146)	6/11/2005 3:09:48 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

It's a matter of degree. Real Estate has not appreciated as significantly in flyover country because of space constraints, poor local economies, and possibly the conservative nature of the inhabitants when it comes to debt (although I have read some crazy stories about credit card debt from people in places where I would have never expected it). Convergence to the mean probably entails some sort of combination of flyover real-estate appreciating at local growth rates whereas speculative areas fall in absolute terms. In turn, West and East Coast economies perform relatively poorly since the spending of disposable income is also local. In the end, this is really about lax lending standards and dumbsh!t consumers. Like any cycle, plenty of money to be made and the people who will profit are those who were patient. That's the beauty of this country.