US WILL BE SHORT OF COLLEGE/COMMMUNITY COLLEGE GRADUATES OVER NEXT 10 YEARS
And western europe is probably worse off.
The only way out is to outsource to other countries and to open up employment based immigration. That will still be very tough to do. So if you are college graduate in US, you will be happy to know that you are going to be in big demand.
The reason - US has been adding college graduates at a fairly steady rate since 1967 (about 1-2 million a year). But most of the new additions since then have remained in the work force. In the next 5-10 years, for the first time in 50 years, the net outflow of college (some college) grads will be significantly large compared to net college grads in.
Look at the data for 25+ age group and 55+ age group.
census.gov
For eg.
2004 increase 2.027 million college (some college)grads of 25+ years old
2004 increase 1.680 million college (some college)grads of 55+ years old
Here is some analysis I have pulled up from raw data.
Data for 25 year+ age
Year Increase Increase Increase
4 yr 'College 1-3 college Total Coll
2004 1,366 661 2,027
2003 1,687 868 2,555
2002 1,468 (239) 1,229
2001 2,383 1,836 4,219
2000 1,042 1,269 2,311
1999 1,830 670 2,500
1998 1,276 732 2,008
1997 1,029 402 1,431
1996 1,442 123 1,565
1995 1,682 1,235 2,917
1994 954 2,563 3,517
1993 1,253 1,931 3,184
1992 311 6,350 6,661
1991 735 1,095 1,830
1990 726 1,461 2,187
1989 1,778 815 2,593
1988 1,150 320 1,470
1987 1,148 750 1,898
1986 681 1,324 2,005
1985 946 1,124 2,070
1984 947 750 1,697
1983 1,865 839 2,704
1982 1,376 650 2,026
1981 481 663 1,144
1980 1,614 986 2,600
1979 1,247 1,014 2,261
1978 705 1,132 1,837
1977 1,131 770 1,901
1976 1,252 959 2,211
1975 944 853 1,797
1974 1,072 834 1,906
1973 864 714 1,578
1972 752 335 1,087
1971 550 618 1,168
1970 527 600 1,127
1969 364 310 674
1968 621 340 961
1967 338 679 1,017
1966 470 96 566
1965 397 54 451
1964 343 (85) 258
1962 1,385 423 1,808
1960 (117) 859 742
1959 562 903 1,465 (over 2 years)
1957 1,054 271 1,325 (over 5 years)
1952 846 468 1,314 (over 2 years)
1950 848 713 1,561 (over 5 years)
1947 1,017 1,458 2,475 (over 7 years)
1940 3,407 4,075 7,482 (Starting number)
Data for 55+ age
2004 1,130 550 1,680
2003 984 767 1,751
2002 934 253 1,187
2001 842 738 1,580
2000 424 404 828
1999 520 700 1,220
1998 485 457 942
1997 492 (77) 415
1996 672 (20) 652
1995 244 772 1,016
1994 109 784 893
1993 320 101 421
1992 74 1,465 1,539
1991 194 338 532
1990 371 288 659
1989 430 209 639
1988 230 (94) 136
1987 266 284 550
1986 59 307 366
1985 115 182 297
1984 79 111 190
1983 419 108 527
1982 384 86 470
1981 176 227 403
1980 290 173 463
1979 402 235 637
1978 89 251 340
1977 77 126 203
1976 382 267 649
1975 150 209 359
1974 40 173 213
1973 63 108 171
1972 60 74 134
1971 139 81 220
1970 190 182 372
1969 95 (9) 86
1968 124 181 305
1967 64 85 149
1966 155 164 319
1965 182 35 217
1964 143 (7) 136
1962 411 115 526
1960 (66) 276 210
1959 84 313 397
1957 197 116 313
1952 259 176 435
1950 180 167 347
1947 246 318 564
1940 579 685 1,264
-Arun |
