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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (64969)	6/13/2005 6:15:05 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Respond to of 74559

Greater China Jun 9, 2005 The US and that 'other' axis By Jephraim P Gundzik Beijing's increasingly close ties with Moscow and Tehran will thwart Washington's foreign policy goal of expanding US security footholds in the Middle East, Central Asia and Asia. However, the primacy of economic stability will most likely prevent a proxy-style military confrontation, in Iran or North Korea, between China and the US. Threat to 'axis of evil' unwinds in Baghdad In January 2002 during his State of the Union address to the US congress, President George W Bush outlined his administration's primary foreign policy goal as preventing "regimes that sponsor terror from threatening America or our friends and allies with weapons of mass destruction". Bush went on to specifically name Iraq, Iran and North Korea as state sponsors of terrorism, infamously dubbing this group the "axis of evil". After failing to gather multilateral support in the United Nation, Bush declared war on Iraq. Since the beginning of the war in Iraq, Beijing has worked feverishly to strengthen its ties with Moscow and Teheran in an apparent effort to prevent US military action against the remaining "axis of evil" members, Iran and North Korea. In addition to recent massive energy deals with Teheran, which place Iran in China's security web, both Beijing and Moscow have accelerated the transfer of missile technology to Teheran, while selling the Islamic republic increasingly sophisticated military equipment. Armed with a vast array of anti-ship and long-range missiles, Iran can target US troop positions throughout the Middle East and strike US Navy ships. Iran can also use its weapons to blockade the Straits of Hormuz through which one-third of the world's traded oil is shipped. With the help of Beijing and Moscow, Teheran is becoming an increasingly unappealing military target for the US. [...] atimes.com My comment: like most pundits, J.P. Gundzik fails to note that the unfolding crisis doesn't stem from a triangular nexus --that is, the US, Iran and China. Gundzik (disingenuously?) misses the fourth player --Israel-- and the rectangular relationship between the US, China, Iran and Israel. "With the help of Beijing and Moscow, Teheran is becoming an increasingly unappealing military target for the US." Of course, as far as the US alone is concerned, a military strike against Iran makes no sense --neither militarily nor economically. But that's not Israeli PM Sharon's problem! Israel's Likudnik leadership views Iran and Israel on a collision course (as regards the Palestinian issue). And the danger is that the Israeli kicker does have the power to drag its American sugar daddy into yet another devastating conflict that runs quite against the latter's national interests.... Gus