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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (18)	6/14/2005 7:06:20 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 50410

Slide, I lived through and traded the 97 OSX crash that was initiated by the movement in Crude. What many new traders in the patch fail to understand is OSX and crude always trades in front of the up coming move. What I mean is OSX and Oil back in 97 was on its way to 30-40 bbl, and OSX 150. It was being pushed by the Asian demand. Very much like what we have today with the china demand. The problem back in 97 and this is what I see happening today, is everyone failed to understand that when OPEC opens the spickit they really open it and ita very hard to shut her down. In 97 production was ramped and eventually caused a flood of crude as every producer cheated as much as they could.Then the asian economy had a HICK-UP. I see very similar problems today with the supply but an even more production and potential flood of crude The US had doubled the SPR weekly intake since 9/11/01. As you know the SPR is just about full. Once that access hits the market with OPEC production ramp, and the fact China will have a Hick-up, Crude will see low 40's and by my estimation 30's by mid 06. I know that many of the Perma Bulls fail to understand because they didnot live through 97. Further more I believe 45-50+ crude will and has already started an economic slowdown around the world. Thats my bearish point, and I want to live with one point. Many want to know how the OSX goes from 120-145 in 30 days from the point of break-down, its because we have the HEDGE-FUNDS playing the osx on a daily and weekly basis. The current move in Crude wa sas expected a short sqeeze and the same for OSX. This will be corrected shortly. I am short OSX and since we ramped up on wendsday and thurday and hope to see a lower top over the next few days.