To: Wharf Rat who wrote (357 ) 6/16/2005 1:44:19 PM From: manalagi Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24206 ONLINE EXCLUSIVE Is OPEC Obsolete? Oil prices didn't budge after the cartel promised to boost crude production—because it's the lack of refining capacity that's the real problem. By Nelson Schwartz The shiny black Mercedes limos left early this morning for the Vienna airport, whisking the OPEC ministers attending the cartel's meeting this week back to their jets for long rides home to Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, Africa and Venezuela. But despite the usual media circus surrounding the pronouncements of the cartel and its various oil chieftains, OPEC lately seems to have lost its power to control surging crude prices. Despite the cartel's promise at Wednesday's meeting to add a half-million barrels a day (to 28 million) in new production by July 1 and another half-million, if necessary, by year's end, crude oil prices stayed comfortably above the $55-a-barrel mark on the New York Mercantile Exchange Thursday. The market shrugged off OPEC's announcement partly because members are already pumping flat out—the International Energy Agency puts actual production by the 10 quota-bound OPEC members at 28 million already—and because few of them aside from Saudi Arabia have the ability to produce much more crude in the near future. Besides, the real story behind the buoyancy of oil prices is limited refining capacity, especially in the U.S. With supplies tight, traders have been bidding up prices of gasoline, heating oil and other refined products, which in turn has caused crude to keep moving higher. So OPEC has had to watch the tail wag the dog in the energy markets, with traders paying more attention to U.S. inventories of gasoline and other end-products than to the amount of crude OPEC has been pumping out of the ground. Don't take our word for it—just listen to Sheikh Ahmad Fahad Al-Sabah, OPEC's president as well as Kuwait's energy minister. "The problem is in the downstream," he said Wednesday. "We are doing our share." Sheikh Ahmad noted that while everyone was focused on geopolitics in 2004, "in 2005 we have to speak about refining." And increasing refining capacity wasn't just a job for OPEC, but for private oil companies, non-OPEC countries, and governments: "Everyone should invest in refining," he said. The sheikh's comments are an admission that in the midst of surging demand for energy from the U.S. and China, and little new supply, OPEC is as powerless as the rest of us. The U.S. hasn't built a new refinery in decades, and any future plants won't come online for years. At this point, the only relief for drivers will come from conservation measures and other government-led efforts. But that's not likely to happen under the current administration. Of course, if oil prices stay high enough to cause real economic pain, demand will cool off—but that's a remedy few of us want to come to pass. (That prospect was raised Thursday by a Morgan Stanley analyst who called the current oil boom the "final frenzy" before a coming price collapse. So much for March's "super spike" report from Goldman Sachs.) As long as tightness prevails, the winners are likely to be companies such as Valero Energy, the largest independent refiner in the U.S, as well as big energy giants like ChevronTexaco and Exxon Mobil, both of which have major refining operations. As for Sheikh Ahmad and his fellow ministers, $55-a-barrel oil has its consolations: Each day, Kuwait rakes in roughly $100 million from crude sales—about $100 for each Kuwaiti man, woman, and child—and Saudi Arabia takes in nearly half a billion. Maybe that's why the ministers took Mercedes limos to the airport, not Priuses. fortune.com