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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (68081)	6/16/2005 10:18:11 PM
From: pfalk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

I agree - "peak oil" means that the size of the known oil reserves will diminish, not that the price of oil will peak (or take off skywards). Technically, what's being referred to as Peak Oil, really means that sometimes in the next few years (maybe this year), we will deplete oil reserves faster than we discover new oil reserves. That probably signals an era of higher oil prices, but not necessarily (in case of recession or increased conservation). To illustrate what could happen (and I hope will happen), is that we get a persistent, but stable, oil price in the 40 to 60 dollar range (hopefully closer to 40). That's "sustainable", and will result in the viability of conservation and alternate fuel technologies, e.g. greater insulation in houses, and photo-voltaics, and solar, and wind, and tele commuting (would benefit Cisco) etc. What we DON'T want is an oil chock, where the price spikes in a 300+ % increase, breaking the back of emerging markets, and plunging industrialized nations into a multi year recession. If you remember, a while back, I was advocating a scheduled gas tax increase by a nickel per year, for the next 5 years, to signal the US that it will pay to conserve. Predictability is the name of the game. The economy can thrive on almost any condition, so long as there is consistency. War is good for the economy, but peace is also good. High oil price is good, as is low oil price. Just make whatever condition you have, predictable and consistent, and persitent - so that we can plan for it. If I know that the Internet is going to continue to be built out, I will invest in Cisco, but if it's stalling, and beef is in shortage, then I'll buy cattle. P.