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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (34541)	6/17/2005 12:11:23 PM
From: carranza2	Respond to of 110194

The two major factors no which to base any assumptions about spare capacity are Saudi reserves, on which Simmons seems to have made some very substantial negative findings, and the timing and size of the Russian supply. If one were thinking as if this subject was the scientific equivalent of a Phase III trial of a promising biotech's new drug, one would conclude that the case for sounding a death knell for Saudi production or even entrance into decline would be a difficult one to accept. The best I can do is this link in which the '03 Saudi exploration results are set forth: rigzone.com If these are correct, a huge if, then the Saudis are more or less replacing production with new found oil. Note: I don't necessarily endorse this, but throw it out for the purpose of discussion. As to the Russian contribution to spare capacity, who the hell knows. But the subject is not a Ph. III trial. One has to rely on one's nose and gut instincts a lot more than is usual on this subject. My nose and instincts tell me Simmons could very well be onto something. I may change this view after I read his book since all I've read so far are various comments and reviews which endorse him wholeheartedly. I've seen nothing to challenge him, plus he seems like an honest type.