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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (164569)	6/21/2005 1:43:36 PM
From: bentway	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

From this, it seems you're jumping the gun a little Henry. I think phase six will feature thousands of human deaths, especially in densely populated places like Aisa. I'd say we're still in phase four or five. No one is really going to pay attention until there are human deaths at least in the four figures, except virologists and public health people. The flu Cassandras have cried wolf too many times. From the CDC: Interpandemic period Phase 1: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low. Phase 2: No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk of human disease. Pandemic alert period Phase 3: Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact. Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans. Phase 5: Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk). Pandemic period Phase 6: Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.